🦠BREAKING GOOD NEWS!
Suicide deaths in Massachusetts did NOT increase during the stay-at-home “shutdown” period in March, April, May, 2020.
The notion that suicide deaths increased during this period here is simply inaccurate, we now can confidently say.
🧵/
Suicide deaths in Massachusetts did NOT increase during the stay-at-home “shutdown” period in March, April, May, 2020.
The notion that suicide deaths increased during this period here is simply inaccurate, we now can confidently say.
🧵/
Here’s a briefing summarizing our findings in the @nytimes: nytimes.com/live/2020/10/2…
And a direct link to the new research: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Let’s unpack this 2/
And a direct link to the new research: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Let’s unpack this 2/
But first, if you or anyone you know is at risk or having mental health concerns, please call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-8255.
....
....
This is work I did with @hmkyale Sejal Shah and a great stats team at @Yale, Chengan Du, Shu-Xia Li, and Zhenqiu Lin.
A great @BrighamWomens @harvardmed / @YaleMed collaboration, with the help of the MA Department of Health.
A great @BrighamWomens @harvardmed / @YaleMed collaboration, with the help of the MA Department of Health.
We looked at this from every angle, and even accounted for the several dozen deaths from March-May whose final cause has yet to be determined.
We just went ahead and assumed they could be suicides.
No change.
We just went ahead and assumed they could be suicides.
No change.
The gray zone in the figure is the range of expected suicide deaths that would have been expected to occur during 2020, based on 2015-2019 trends.
As you can see, we were well within normal ranges (why January 2020 was a bit worse than usual, we don’t know).
As you can see, we were well within normal ranges (why January 2020 was a bit worse than usual, we don’t know).
The dashed green line shows what the suicide death numbers would be if we account for the handful of deaths from March-May that are still under investigation.
We just assumed they “could” be suicides, just to be extra conservative.
We just assumed they “could” be suicides, just to be extra conservative.
We do not know if suicides will have gone up after or since.
Data are not yet complete enough.
But we are not surprised by this finding.
What *could drive an uptick in suicides would be downstream economic problems in the absence of support/stimulus/aid.
But...
Data are not yet complete enough.
But we are not surprised by this finding.
What *could drive an uptick in suicides would be downstream economic problems in the absence of support/stimulus/aid.
But...
It’s not yet known if increases in suicides have since occurred.
If it has, will it be worse in states with longer shutdown periods (eg Massachusetts) or in places that opened sooner and had a far worse past few months both in terms of covid and the economy?
Remains to be seen.
If it has, will it be worse in states with longer shutdown periods (eg Massachusetts) or in places that opened sooner and had a far worse past few months both in terms of covid and the economy?
Remains to be seen.
For now, we can say that people claiming a huge increase in suicides was occurring during the shutdown here were basically just *making that up*
We have to be data driven, not driven by a “gee whiz, that sounds right, so it must be!” mentality.
We have to be data driven, not driven by a “gee whiz, that sounds right, so it must be!” mentality.
Here’s the link again and thanks for reading.
NYT: nytimes.com/live/2020/10/2…
Original article: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
NYT: nytimes.com/live/2020/10/2…
Original article: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Lastly, again, if you or anyone you know is at risk or having mental health concerns, please call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-8255.
Be well, everyone.
/fin.
Be well, everyone.
/fin.
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