Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

October 21 – Ontario daily update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario

Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 3,053 (207 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.02%)

38.8% of Canadian population but 31.2% of Canada deaths by/with covid-19

More deaths >90 (990) than <80 (952)

64.8% in LTC homes

The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy.

Ontario now reports:

- 72 in ICU

- 45 in ICU on a ventilator

Ontario now reports:

- 72 in ICU

- 45 in ICU on a ventilator

Here are the official Ontario ICU models for the “second wave.”

The Ontario Actual line has been extended here (see blue line to right of the star icon) to show progress since the models were released.

Ontario now reports:

- 274 in hospital

- 72 in ICU

- 45 in ICU on a ventilator

As data on daily new hospitalizations is not publicly available, this is the daily net change in hospitalizations (ICU and non-ICU).

A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason.

Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).

Ontario “Second Wave”:

- Growth is not exponential

- May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero

Deaths in Ontario, 2015-19, plus all deaths in 2020, Jan-July.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2017-19 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Ontario deaths 2017-July 2020. Recent 2020 data may be subject to revision.