If Trump wins despite oceans of polls giving Biden big leads, Big Tech putting every thumb it has on the scales for Biden, and legacy media smothering stories that hurt Biden like WW2 soldiers throwing themselves on hand grenades, it will shake the pillars of punditry Heaven.
Of course, Trump's 2016 event was a "black swan" event as far as pundits were concerned - a black swan the size of Mothra descending upon Washington D.C. Remember how they promised they'd get in touch with voters, learn from their mistakes, become bubbled and blinkered?
Yeah, none of that happened. DNC Media doubled down on its political biases, made its bubble thicker, made its blinkers bigger, and effectively took over the Biden 2020 campaign while their candidate hides in the basement. Fake news stories became their hottest product.
DNC Media doubled and re-doubled efforts to impose THEIR vision on US for four years, instead of learning how we see the world and trying to understand how they got 2016 so wrong. In a few weeks, they'll either see their strategy validated or suffer the worst psychic shock ever.
Can they do the same thing if Trump wins again? The easy answer is yes - they'll never learn or change. As a 90% Democrat profession, the media views ordinary Americans with contempt and assumes we're always wrong. Losing means they just have work harder at "fixing" us.
But if Trump wins after all THIS? After the entire media gave everything it had for Biden, literally BECAME the Biden 2020 campaign, and gorged on dozens of polls that said Trump has better odds of winning the lottery than winning re-election? Could that finally crack the bubble?
You would think, at a bare minimum, that Trump's re-election would do a lot of damage to the political polling industry. Oh, sure, the media doesn't mind inaccurate polls that help it shape public opinion, but that usefulness will evaporate if the public sees polls as a joke.
We'd get the usual scramble to save face: the polls shifted right before the election, the last round of polling was only off by X%, in retrospect Biden was always a terrible candidate, Trump won by using dirty tricks, etc. Just like 2016.
But at some level, two Black Swan elections in a row would be a profound blow to political prognostication. Cages would be rattled. The survival of political media would depend on regaining SOME credibility, at least pretending to make SOME changes.
And somewhere in that corrupt nexus between Big Media and the Democrat Party, the shot-callers would be forced to admit they can no longer influence the public as much as they used to. In fact, they can no longer accurately MEASURE their influence on the public mind.
If Trump wins, DNC Media will be like drug dealers who realize they've blown their whole operation by overindulging in their own products. They got high on their own cooked polls and propaganda. They influenced THEMSELVES more than they influenced voters.
The key to running an effective propaganda operation is that the purveyors KNOW they're pushing propaganda. They can't afford to believe it themselves. They need to be the only people in society with accurate information, so they can plan their strategy.
That's why political campaigns have secret internal polls that can look very different from the stuff pushed on the public by DNC Media. There has always been an implicit understanding that public polling is not accurate enough. Good pushers don't get wasted on their own dope.
If Trump wins after all this - after the pandemic, after media declaring all-out war on him - it might cause real introspection in some quarters of the media that they no longer understand the electorate well enough to manipulate it. /end
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