Thread by @GrumpyOldFrog1

The IFR for Covid is trending down in the US.
It is now around 0.20% for the entire country,
And trending lower…

The US got off to a very bad start, i.e., NYC, which skewed the #'s, and everyone's perception on the IFR.
(see below)
1/9

The "To Date" IFR is around 0.30-0.36%
This is what most "experts" use for their models, some are still higher.

The 30/60/90 day IFR is around 0.20%
That's 40% lower.

But what about…
2/9

Testing went up and thus cases went up.
And fatalities fell.

So of course the IFR went down, right.

Well yes...and no...
3/9

The case/fatality ratio did go up from mid May through mid July, resulting in a reduction in IFR.

Post the peak, however, the ratio fell and the IRF stayed stable.

So it's not just higher cases, it's an improvement in our ability to treat Covid.

dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?…
4/9

So what does the Covid IFR look like by age group?

Below is the US IFR - TO DATE - by age group
Note only 8% of cases are >75

The IFR for anyone under 50 is almost nil.

So where could the IFR go…
5/6

I posted a thread earlier this week on the IFR in Texas.

It was 0.66% in April.

It's now 0.10%

See below:

https://twitter.com/GrumpyOldFrog1/status/1318586780417986560?s=20

6/9

Dallas County is ever better.

It's 60 Day IFR is 0.08%.
It's 30 Day IFR is 0.06%

And it's till trending down.

*Based on data from DSHS.

7/9

Dallas County also posts some age data:

Again, no impact on those under 40.
But the >65 group is trending down.

The over 65 IFR was between 1.5-2.0% in May & June.
It is now 0.56%, and trending lower.

8/9

So where can the Covid IFR go?
We know it is trending down.

Texas is 55% below the national average
Dallas is 65% lower.

The national IFR should continue to trend lower.
Our public policies must also adjust.
9/9