Thread by @BauerJournalism

Mayor Lightfoot & Dr. Allison Arwady at CDPH will have a press conference at 1 p.m.. Chicago is in a second surge of COVID-19, & they warned business restrictions could be brought back to slow the spread.

I'll live tweet. Follow for updates.

Related: blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/22/44-…

Note: Things are not going well in Chicago, and its outbreak is considered "out of control."

An average of 645 cases are being reported per day, a 54 percent from the prior week. Deaths stable at about three per day.

The city's positivity rate is at 6.4 percent.

You can watch here:

https://twitter.com/chicagosmayor/status/1319338922812399616

Lightfoot: "Earlier this week, we shared some of the very troubling COVID-19 data we've seen in recent weeks. In announcing that data, I said that if we don't see a dramatic turnaround and soon we would not hesitate to take the steps necessary to keep our resident safe and ...

"healthy."

Lightfoot: Just in past 4 days, our city's daily COVID case rate "has now surged and reached over 640 cases on average a day. We are, no doubt whatsoever, in the second surge. This is what it looks like."

Lightfoot: There will be a "business curfew" for the city over the next 2 weeks.

Lightfoot: "A business curfew means the following: effective tomorrow, all non-essential businesses will be closed to the business from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. All liquor sales will be closed as of 9 p.m. across the city. That's restaurants, cocktails to go and any other alcohol ...

"sales stop at 9 p.m. And as with the first surge, exceptions will be made for essential businesses like grocery stores, pharmacies and restaurant delivery and takeout services. Meanwhile, bars that don't operate with a food license will no longer be permitted to serve ...

"customers inside. And finally, I want to make a special point on this: We are asking all Chicagoans to refrain from gatherings of more than six people, as well as social gatherings of any sort after 10 p.m. And we are taking these measures to avoid potential catastrophic ...

"impacts later."

Lightfoot: "COVID-19 thrives in places and in circumstances where people let their guard down. As the weather cools and people head indoors, the risk of the spread" rises exponentially.

Lightfoot: "Compounding all of this is reports we're now seeing, uptick again of large groups of people gathering without social distancing and, worse, without masks. Now, some of it is, of course, a misplaced sense that those you know don't have it. That's wrong. Some of it ...

"is COVID fatigue, which you get. Whatever the case, the fact remains: We have to wear masks. We have to social distance. We have to engage in handwashing and all the other socially responsible public health guidelines that we have been talking about since March. We have to ...

"remain vigilant. COVID-19 has not gone away. It has not disappeared. We are not out of this crisis and this pandemic."

STORY: blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/22/chi…

Lightfoot: If you're a city employee, you must wear a mask, period.

Interesting side note: Will police listen? Many officers have not been wearing masks. blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/02/the…

Lightfoot: "This virus is relentless. It doesn't respect our boundaries. It's not something we can keep at bay when we're in our home."

Lightfoot to young people: "You are simply not immune to COVID-19. You can and you are getting it."

Lightfoot: Younger people might be better equipped to handle the virus, but they're spreading it to people who aren't.

Lightfoot: "What none of us is want is even further restrictions [heading into the holidays,] but that is exactly the path that we are on right now if we do not take heed and adhere to the tools that got us to a better place in the first place. ... If we need to take further ...

"steps and move back into Phase 3 or even going back to shelter in place, I'm not gonna hesitate to do that. I hope that won't be necessary, but it's all in your hands."

Lightfoot to Black and Latino Chicagoans: "We understand how disproportionately you have been affected by this terrible, terrible disease."

Lightfoot: "But I want to emphasize the one thing each of us can control is who we come in contact with, who comes into our home, how many times we're out in public. That has gotta be something we think more seriously about as we see this second case surge happening. ...

"I don't want to put more restrictions in our city. No one does. But I have to do what is right to save lives. And if that means rolling back further, I will."

Lightfoot: "It is frightening, the rapidity with which these numbers are doubling on a day by day basis. The increase is startling. It's really quite breath-taking. If you think abut where we were even two weeks ago ... it's like we're back in the spring."

Arwady: "The average number of diagnosed new cases in Chicago stands at 645 new cases per day. But that's a 7-day rolling average, and we've already had multiple times with 800 or even 900 cases coming in, and the numbers are still going up."

Arwady on Chicago's confirmed cases: 7,055 are active right now — they're infectious and have been tested. More than 80,000 people have recovered. More than 3,000 have died.

Arwady: "We know, across the U.S., between 5 and 10 times this number have actually gotten COVID. Everybody is not being tested. Our testing rates are quite good here, so where we look at our testing numbers, our death numbers ...

"our estimate here is that it's in in the 5-7 times range. Which means right now between 35,000 and 50,000" Chicagoans likely have COVID right now.

Arwady: This is why large gatherings and even small gatherings "are posing significant health risks right now. There is a 30% chance that someone in a group of 25 people has COVID-19. There is a 50% change that someone in a group of 50 has COVID-19."

Arwady: Even in a group of 10, there's a 14% chance someone has COVID-19.

Arwady: Just a week and a half, two weeks ago, "we were in green here. Everything was looking good." By Monday, we were in yellow. "We are now solidly in red, which means it's time to pull back. ...

"Similarly, just a week ago, we were well under 5% positivity. When we were up here on Monday, were just" getting to the 6% range. "Well, we're getting closed to 8%" now. "And then, finally, the ICU numbers and the non-ICU numbers are increasing."

Arwady: "Also, a severe warning similar to Monday but only getting worse: COVID-19 cases dramatically increasing across all race/ethnicity groups. Similarly severe warning:" it continues to dramatically increase among all groups, "importantly" including older Chicagoans.

Arwady: "We know older people more likely to have severe outcomes. We know younger people spread COVID to old folks."

Arwady: One week ago, we were at 4.6 percent. Today, we're at 6.4 percent. "But we're at 7 percent per the state numbers because there can be some delay in terms of when numbers are coming in and whether we're counting the dates someone is diagnosed vs. the date it's ...

"reported. That 7% number is important because ... when we hit 8% positivity, even further rollbacks come. Indoor restaurants close. Gatherings are limited to 25 people, 25% capacity. There's additional details. And when I'm looking at 6.4% positivity in our numbers today ...

"and already seeing 7% is on the horizon, I know we are increasing. 7% is the best that any region is doing in Illinois and it is not good."

Arwady: The increase is NOT due to testing. The line circled here shows it's getting easier to find positive results from tests — indicates increased spread.

Arwady: One month ago today, we had a low point for people in Chicago hospitalized with COVID or suspected COVID — 249 people. On Monday, that had risen to 314 average cases. Now, we're up to average of 360 cases. Our most recent day is at 460.

Arwady: We're hearing from hospitals that they are standing up their COVID units again. "We're hearing from all settings, including workplaces, that they're seeing more people with COVID coming in. That's because there's so much more COVID here in Chicago."

Arwady: "I full expect that we will see" an increase in deaths, "particularly if we can't turn this around."

Arwady: In Chicago, 2/3 of people diagnosed with COVID know the person who likely infected them. 3/4 say those close interactions took place at home.

Arwady: "I do not want you having anybody into your home who is not essential for being there — they live there or they're providing an essential service like home health care, education" or other care. "And if you have people in, please, masks are crucial."

Arwady: "We know, unfortunately, that bars are a significant risk factor for spread. We've seen that locally," nationally and internationally, especially among younger Chicagoans.

Arwady: They're investigating a networking event at a bar that had almost 150 people in attendance. Masks were worn — "but people take their masks down when they're drinking." There was just one attendee who was found to be infected. They've already had 5 more cases identified.

Arwady: Zero percent of the people who were cases said they had good mask control. Only 40 percent of those who were un-infected said they were a mask all or nearly all the time.

Arwady: "It's hard when you're drinking, it's hard when you're eating, I understand it." But people need to keep masks on when not directly eating/drinking.

Arwady: No huge outbreaks of hundreds of people, but there are clusters. "Nothing against the bars, but they are a source of spread."

Arwady: "So as we're thinking about what comes next here, I hope you are hearing that we need you to do everything in your power to stop giving COVID the chance to spread. You know what to do. We need you to do it."

Arwady: "If we can turn this around, as soon as our numbers are looking better, we'll be the first ones up here, looking to reopen things. But right now, that's not how things are looking."

Rosa Escareno from business department: Her heart goes out to business owners/employees who have made sacrifices. "This is a community effort. We must all come together and we must work together to ensure that the lives of all our residents are the priority for us. And we know...

"that as business owners, you do not have a customer if the residents do not feel safe. So, again, we must put the health of our residents first. And as the second surge is here, the data, obviously, is alarming, the time to take action is now."

Escareno: They'll communicate to the business community starting with workshops tomorrow. "The time to act is now. Information is going to be coming to you as early as tomorrow. And these guidelines go into effect almost immediately. We realize that you have a short time frame...

"to operationalize these changes, but you've done it before. We will be working with you to ensure we're allowing you time to implement. However, I want you to know we are not shy about taking enforcement."

Lightfoot: "We're seeing cases primarily in social gatherings, not specific to restaurants. But what we also know ... is that limiting the occasions for gathering and particularly in areas where the risk is greatest — and that's bars ... ."

Lightfoot: "We're also seeing people catching the virus in other kinds of social settings, particularly in homes. We're seeing gatherings happening there. People feel like they're safe in their home. They're letting their guard down."

Lightfoot: "If we don't see some fairly dramatic chance and soon, we're gonna have to take some other steps."

Arwady: "... We do not always know causation when we're doing case investigation and contact tracing." They ask: Where have you been? Who have you been in contact with? "It is common for people to have been in many spaces and to have had contact with many individuals."

Arwady: "The great majority of the time, we are not as easily on an individual case level to assign where one may be. We ask people, do they know someone who had COVID?" Where did they interact with them? That's where data comes about how people spread COVID to people they know.

Arwady: "Where we see smoke, there's usually fire, and we can often do an outbreak investigation starting from a place."

Arwady: "If we go right back to the same metrics we've been using all along, what brings us back into" the green zone "is when we're able to see a stable or decrease in these numbers between 1-13 days and no increase in the most recent 14 days.

Arwady: At the state level, 8% positivity for 3 days is what brings stricter rules.

Arwady: But the bottom line is, you need to be the on the decline here.

Arwady: "We did not feel it was appropriate to wait when we are seeing numbers increasing the way they are increasing. We're putting these restrictions in; again, I'm hoping we don't need to" have further restrictions.

Lightfoot: "First and foremost is about keeping everyone safe, and particularly our young people and our vulnerable students ... . Where that decision leads itself is unknown at this point. We'd love to get those kids back in school. Why? It's a simple matter of equity." ...

Remote learning is not working for them. "But, obviously, whatever we do is gonna [be done] with our first, important priority, which is keeping our young people safe."

Lightfoot: "I always think the best approach is educating people into compliance. I don't want to be locking people up because they're not wearing masks," but they should wear masks. "But we're not gonna criminalize mask-wearing behavior. That doesn't make any sense to me. ...

"Let's spend the resources and energy on education ... ."

Lightfoot: "It brings us into, really, I think a number of different government entities, whether it's City Colleges, whether it's CPS. What we've seen historically is because of politics, no property tax. Everybody hates property taxes; I get it. But when you go from a total ...

"drought and nothing for years and then you have this huge, historic spike, we want to add stability" and predictability into the system. "They just want to know what the rules are so they can account for that in building out their plans."

Press conference over.

STORY: blockclubchicago.org/2020/10/22/chi…