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Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
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23 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
extremely tempted to poll the presidential race with a crosstab for which floor people live on
has there ever been a more frequently discussed and rarely polled demographic than the basement dweller?
the basement base
historical basement polls are a really grim mix of "where would you go in the event of a bomb strike" and questions about JonBenet Ramsey

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More from @aedwardslevy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
23 Oct
New HuffPost/YouGov poll: Most voters think social media platforms have a responsibility to prevent users from spreading conspiracy theories/false information. Big partisan gap, but also an age divide.

huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac… ImageImage
GOP voters mostly believe social media platforms are biased against conservative views, while a modest plurality of Dem voters see them as neutral.

huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac… Image
Voters are pretty divided on whether it's a good or bad thing for elected officials to be on social media, but they're more likely to think Trump's tweets hurt than help him. huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac… ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
23 Oct
I realize this is beating a dead horse, but...SSRS, CNN's pollster, also conducts some of their polling online (their post-debate poll was phone, but includes call-backs of voters originally reached through SSRS's panel). "Online" is not the problem here!
CNN/SSRS methodology: cnn.com/2020/10/22/pol… Image
I realize this seems nitpicky, but I think it runs the risk of being genuinely confusing as the industry moves toward different modes. Gallup is doing online polling. Pew is doing online polling. AP is doing online polling. Etc.
Read 6 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
23 Oct
Twitter polls are not representative of what people thought of the debate and focus groups are not representative of what people thought of the debate -- I know you all know this, but I just realized I'm not going to get to say this again for ages.
no worries, I can still be a condescending scold about the SotU
While I'm at it: snap polls are a more-or-less reasonable gauge of who watched the debate, but "debate watchers" is not the same sample universe as "the electorate."
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
26 Jul
Because this is a good use of time on Saturday night, I want to just pull out this 2016 post-mortem from the pollsters' professional org (full disclosure, I'm a member), which examines in depth the possibility for a shy Trump vote.

Short version: tests “yielded no evidence.”
Here's the link: aapor.org/Education-Reso…
1. If "shy Trump" voters were a major factor, support for Trump should have been greater in polls that didn't use live interviewers.

"[I]nterviewer administered polls did not under-estimate Trump’s support more than self-administered IVR and online surveys"
Read 13 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
2 Jul
Not to belabor this point, but I think some people kind of are overestimating the amount of mask-avoidance that's overtly driven by vanity/embarrassment or ideological hostility.
What distinguishes the people who aren't wearing masks:
-They reject the framing as a public health issue
-They're more likely to believe there's no public health benefits
Obviously, holding that latter set of beliefs is still intrinsically tied up with partisanship, but it's a little different from "masks are for weaklings" or "not wearing a mask to own the libs."
Read 9 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
20 May
We've got a new set of HuffPost/YouGov polling on masks. If this was supposed to be the new front in a culture war...someone apparently forgot to tell most of the public.

huffpost.com/entry/face-mas…
There are still significant partisan and demographic divides, but they’re not so pronounced as to leave the two parties diametrically opposed. Rather, the gap is a matter of degrees.
Americans say, 62% to 29%, wearing masks is a matter of public health, not personal choice.

Most say wearing a mask is equally or more about protecting others than oneself.

huffpost.com/entry/face-mas…
Read 13 tweets

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