Thread by @tbonier

I've gotten a lot of questions as to why I think our TargetEarly site shows a GOP lead, while we've seen huge turnout in Dem areas. Indulge me for a few tweets to explain why I believe the early vote in Texas is indicative of a state very much in play for Joe Biden.

Look at the modeled party ID of the early vote in TX. The most important note here, this isn't a model of candidate support, but rather generic partisanship, a metric that isn't generally favorable to Dems in TX. Dems trail by 10.8% so far there.

But compare that to 2018 at this same point in time in TX. Dems trailed in the EV by 14.1%, meaning the 2020 EV electorate is 3.3% more Democratic than the 2018 electorate, which in the end resulted in a highly competitive US Senate election. That's the first good sign for Biden.

The next good sign for Biden. Of the 5.2M votes already cast in TX, 1.3M have been cast by Texans who didn't vote in 2016. Among those voters, the party ID gap is 6.3 pts more Dem than among those early voters who did vote in '16. The enthusiasm is on Biden's side in TX thus far.

The third positive sign for the Biden campaign in TX: while the overall turnout is breaking records, the youth vote is surging beyond all other age groups. Voters under the age of 30 account for 10.2% of all early votes thus far, up from 6.6% at this point in '16.

One more positive sign for Biden in the TX early vote - Latino turnout is surging. Latino voters account for 16.5% of ballots cast, up from 15.8% at this point in '16. White college educated voters, who have been key to Dem gains in TX, are also surging.

Thanks for indulging me with this trip into the weeds, assessing the TX early vote. In the end, I expect the race to be close there, and with over 5M ballots cast, see a path to a Biden win.