Trinh Profile picture
23 Oct, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Yep, that is a key take-away. He's going to make energy more expensive by moving away from fossil fuel. Germany did this & we can use it as a case study. Phased out coal & nuclear & increased renewables, total generation decline so imports more natural gas or 71% of energy supply
Germany's choice: more renewables, less nuclear (actually pretty clean & accidents rare but highly publicised kind of like airplane crash vs car crahses) & defo less coal.

But guess what? It IMPORTS more FOSSIL FUEL by doing this & increase dependency on Russia natural gas.
Germany's choice:

*By 2022, close the remaining nuclear power plants (clean & cheap source of energy)
*By 2030, rely on renewable energy sources for 65% of total.

Let's look at the facts!
Because of this move to close down nuclear plants & coal & increase of reliance on renewables, became dependent on IMPORTS.

Energy imports = 71% of Germany supply.

So u see that it is VERY DEPENDENT ON FOSSIL FUEL like oil & natural gas. 5th largest energy consumer in world.
By closing down its own nuclear energy generation + coal & raise renewables, it has only been able to supply 29% of its total energy needs & imports 71%.

Where from? Russia oil & liquids! 2 largest pipelines are the Druzhba pipeline from Russia & Trans Alpine pipeline from Italy
For natural gas, imports from Russia through Nord Stream + Yamal-Europe & Norway through Norpip & Europip I & II.

So moving to renewables actually didn't make it more "green" but made it more "green" DOMESTICALLY via production in Germany but CONSUMES GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL.
So that means that it is NOT INDEPENDENT for energy & dependent on RUSSIA fossil fuel.

Anyway you may ask, what about price? HIGHEST ELECTRICITY PRICE IN EUROPE & RISING.

Yep, that's what Biden proposes. Good stuff.
In 1998, the share of household disposible income spent on electricty = 1.78%. In 2015, that rose to 2.3%. Because costs went up, one of the positives is that households REDUCE consumption, so kind of good ish.

It still relies on imports of fossil fuel for 71% of energy supply.
Let's juxtapose Germany's choice vs France's choice:

Got cheap energy!
Got clean energy!
Exports energy!

Why? Well, relies on nuclear!

And yes, France has energy security b/c of this vs Germany that depends on Russia.
Prices of electricity in Europe. Let's look at France vs Germany, which btw has moved to renewables but in reality relies on fossil fuel for consumption due to higher dependency on Russian natural gas. True story. So got higher prices & less energy security.

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More from @Trinhnomics

23 Oct
I'm watching the debate & so far the moderator is being pretty fair & the whole shut-down thing is great.

🍿🍿🍿
Who is she? She's great! I think she's way more fair than that other moderator at the other debate. I'm cheering for the moderator! :-) Trump has more self-control & on point than the last debate & it's so far very civil.
Biden says Rudy Giuliani is a Russian pawn? Wuat??? Seriously! He's losing the plot.
Read 39 tweets
22 Oct
Good morning, let's read this paper together:

Biden's Economic Agenda: The Long Run Impacts of Its Regulation, Taxes & Spending.

Conclusion: Pretty bad for growth! Reduces employment, capital stock per person, GDP per capita & real consumption!

hoover.org/sites/default/…
What does Joe Biden propose??

1) Reverse 2017 tax cuts & increase taxation & high-income households & pass through entities

2) Reverse regulatory reforms & set new environmental standards

3) Create/expand subsidies for, esp, health insurance & renewable energy.
They say that more regulations affect resource usage by regulated industries & new taxes distort the markets for capital & labor.

So? Will be 4.9 million few employed individuals, $2.6trn less GDP & 1.5trn less consumption. Median household in 2030 will be $6,500 less.
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
This story should be the most read as the USA is in the middle of a national emergency: public schools closed & so it impacts the disadvantaged the most.

Parents that can have pulled their kids to private school. Imagine ur child in front of zoom all day long. Horrible.
"9-year-old Lucas grew increasingly angry, frustrated and despondent sitting in front of a computer for his classwork, his outbursts frequent and gut-wrenching. They pulled Lucas from his shuttered San Francisco public school & placed him in a reopened private school."
“Our educational system is off in a corner somewhere staring at its navel, completely disconnected from the community,” said Thompson, adding that he’s a lifelong public school proponent. “This is like a crashing airplane and the pilot is not saying anything."
Read 9 tweets
20 Oct
Not quite: electric cars by definition needs electricity & let's look on where Hong Kong gets its electricity from:

Coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Lama Power Station of HEC & Castle Peak Power Station of CLP are the two power plants that generate electricity by coal.

🤷🏻‍♀️
If you think driving an electric car makes you totally renewable, then here's the news: YOU NEED ELECTRICITY.

Sources of electricity in America: Natural gas (38%); Coal (23%); Nuclear 20%) & Renewable (17%).
Most electricity is derived from, wait for it: fossil fuel!!!

Hong Kong uses COAL for most of its electricity generation! Yes, true story.
Read 25 tweets
20 Oct
"Buy land, they are not making it anymore."

Mark Twain

May I add buy prime land like coastal California. You can always count on the politicians + residents to be voting for more regulations to limit supply. How do I know? I'm from California & invest their. A good call so far.
With the government inept, local & national, & with lock-downs introduced as gov couldn't prevent a pandemic & shuts down local economic activities, people INVEST more in real estate as it's the only place they can control.

But if you think humans are rational, u're wrong.
While the land & property owners are rational & lobby properly & the politicians act accordingly with adding more regulations to limit access to lower supply & raise prices, the people NOT owning property CONSISTENTLY ACT AGAINST THEIR OWN INTERESTS.

Watch how millennials vote.
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
Watch direct investment by Singaporean firms (also Japanese, Taiwanese & South Koreans). They understand Asia and usually ahead of the game. The Singaporeans bought up Vietnam real estate at the height of the crisis circa 2011-2012 & got some good deals & that was a good call.
The question we have to ask is that whether Indonesia could ever be a story that is not just domestic demand but rather one that is rising in participation of global value chain and more outward.

When was the last time you bought something that is Made in Indonesia?
Elephant in the room is India (a sleepy giant in term of FDI but more awake than Indonesia). India is a favorite for portfolio investors (see valuation of equities and also even bonds). That said, needs to be more outward.

When was the last time u bought something Made in India?
Read 5 tweets

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