People who believe Warren Buffett to be a buy and hold investor are not very well informed.

First and foremost, Warren Buffett is a master deal-maker. And he's an expert at using derivatives to protect himself.

If he were only a buy and hold investor, he'd not be this rich.
More often than not, he's used a combination of derivatives, complex instruments in order to create a what's called "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" scenario, like the deal he did with Goldman Sachs during the housing crash.
This superb mastery of the use of right derivative instruments with the most opportune timing backed by his cash holdings has created wealth for him beyond what a simple buy and hold would have.
Don't be fooled by what you read on Social Media based on his quotes alone.

Go and read his annual reports, partnership letters, and books on him. You'll have a better picture of who he is and how he got wealthy.

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More from @theBuoyantMan

24 Oct
So, there has been some conversation regarding backtesting based on what I had posted few weeks back. I'll use this thread to tell you how I backtest ideas.

1. Depending on which instrument the idea is being tested for, I take the 1 lot quantity of that instrument.
2. I test for the entire in-sample period with just one lot quantity (75 if nifty, 25 if banknifty, and respective stock future unit sizes for stocks).

3. No additional lots will be added as the profits are generated.
For most, I keep 3 lakhs as starting capital with around 1.5 lakhs as the margin amount.

What this gives me is for one lot trading.

I look for the following:

1. Maximum Drawdown
2. CAGR
3. Risk vs Reward ratio
4. Average points per trade
Read 28 tweets
24 Oct
Grab a peanut butter sandwich. I'm gonna teach you the Dividend Arbitrage strategy in @10kdiver's style ;-)

Arbitrage = Free Lunch in market. Free lunches usually don't exist, but they do exist, if you know where to look.
What amateur traders/investors think:

"Oh, this company has announced dividend. Let me buy the stock so that I can receive the dividend. I'll sell the stock just after the requisite date until which I should hold the stock. I'll then pocket the dividend. Free money yay!"
What happens:

The stock price rises leading up to the ex-dividend date, and then falls. You get the dividend, but the stock you hold falls in price equivalently. So, you're left with no profit, and if you're lucky, no loss either.
Read 28 tweets
22 Oct
The three biggest lies in trading.

1. A lot of content on trading that you find on Youtube is utterly and absolutely worthless. More like 99%.

Google's job is to give you the best results - based on likes, comments, interactions, etc.
The people who do the search decide what gets ranked where. New traders searching for terms makes Youtube figure out what terms are searched more.

The Youtubers figure out what terms are searched more and create content based on those terms.
Most of the creators aren't creating content that's super valuable that you should watch, because that content will not be ranked by Google. Coz, Google only ranks the content that people are looking for.

The problem is that people don't know what to look for.
Read 32 tweets
22 Oct
For those who are scamming retail investors, this should be a proper warning sign. There was one Rahul Arora on Quora who was doing something similar, and now we all know how unregulated one of the popular "algo trading platforms" is and how many people are complaining.
Before you associate with someone who promises high returns, or ease of making money - understand that there's no easy money. Easy money comes easy and goes easy. It won't stay. Don't associate with someone who promises such a thing.
Unregulated algo trading platforms are cropping up like mushrooms, and one such platform has a lot of user complaints on their comments section itself. Those running strategies there aren't registered with SEBI, let alone have at least 5 years of market experience.
Read 20 tweets
20 Oct
Back between 2014-16, @Sanjay__Bakshi hailed Kitex Garments as the next multi bagger, put a good sum of money into Kitex at 431 odd rupees. Around that time, my favorite @amitmantri did his forensic analysis and pointed out the funny math in the financials of Kitex.
Kitex has only gone down ever since Prof Sanjay had invested. Sabu was supposed to be an "intelligent fanatic" and even Ian Cassel reflected that in one of his tweets saying Sabu was a brilliant guy.
There was a very good presentation by Prof Sanjay on Intelligent Fanatics in India. The problem with such Intelligent Fanatics is that it's only visible in hindsight.
Read 9 tweets
17 Oct
Almost all the decisions in life that I regret were taken under strong emotional influence.

Looking back, this is the one thing that stands out. Whether it's greed, anger, hatred, vengeance, or just exuberance, every regretful decision has been made with emotions.
We only think that it's an emotional decision if we are overtly angry or overtly happy. But that need not be the case. Hope is an emotion. Greed is an emotion. Fear, even slightly is an emotion. When you're standing on a fence, a small emotion can nudge you to either side.
So, when making decisions that usually require a lot of changes in your life, think it through and see if any hope, desire, greed, fear, etc., have crept into the decision making process.
Read 18 tweets

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