A STRONG personal bias of mine is that the apocalypse is NOT coming. Literally every projected past apocalypse that I read up on while training as a social science quant - Y2K, global cooling, the Population Bomb, Peak Oil, Club of Rome, global acid rain - simply did not happen.
(2) The list of these could be extended by a dozen: the Western hetero AIDS epidemic, killer bees and the Great Northerly Migration, the Ferguson and Pueyo COVID models, the "trashland" problem, the 'permanent' ozone hole, Alar, radon, nuclear meltdowns, etc. Mankind endures.
(3) All "coming apocalypses" fit a particular pattern: a major book/top paper (1) makes projections based on worst-case scenarios (Pueyo's projected C-19 IFR was 4%) and (2) argues that human mitigation can have only a limited effect on the problem (i.e. Ferguson's 2nd scenario).
(4) What we see instead is (1) that the actual impact of the problem (like 68-95% OF problems) falls within "mid-range" parameters instead of worst-case ones and (2) human beings take effective action to respond to THAT. The real COVID IFR is .26-.65%......and people wear masks.
(5) This does NOT mean we should do 0 about upcoming problems like climate change. It DOES mean that the most frightening predictions we hear are very likely to be wrong and that seawall/geoengineering tech that is NOT modeled for is very likely to mitigate effects we do see.
(6) It's also important for analysts not to focus only on Point (2) that I'm making here: "Thank GOD we panicked...or we all would have DIED!!!" Point (1) is also relevant: the COVID IFR was never 4%, so the most terrifying papers would have been off by 800% if we did nothing.
(7) My final advice here would be: "Be aware of coming issues, look for solutions, and stay calm." GCC is REAL, as COVID-19 was. But, we didn't need "global socialism" to fight COVID...we needed $9 N-95s. Panic is never useful, and rarely justified. Keep calm, and carry on.
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