Thread by @jholbo1

I'm on the fence about this. Part of me thinks Tabarrok is exactly right. If the US had a 'normal' center-right party, it would dominate. But Matt's counterpoint is compelling as well. The ingredients needed for a winning right-wing coalition are volatile. 1/

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1319727418475675650

There is an irony in this. Politically, 'conservatism' is hard to stabilize. I'm only sure of this much: it won't be easy for Josh Hawley or Tom Cotton to step into Trump's shoes and build up a 'proper' authoritarian, minoritarian ethno-statist party, American-style. 2/

You need charisma plus will-to-power plus organizational skill and dedication to the cause. Trump has the rarest bit of that, not all of it. Cotton & Hawley lack the Trump lightning-in-a-bottle charisma. But it IS possible to imagine a right-wing demagogue pulling it together. 3/

Tucker Carlson is closer, but his weakness - like Trump's - is he is a creature of media, hence probably lacks LBJ-like political skills and inclinations behind the scenes. Parties are weak, at present. And the dream demagogue of the right will need to be a party leader. 4/

The R's are close in the hybrid form of Trump-plus-McConnell-Roberts. I imagine one thing that maddens them, surveying the scene, is just how close they are. It isn't that Trump would have succeeded better just by being 10% more Romney-like. 5/

It's more that he and Mitch could have been the greatest wrestling tag-team ever, if they had worked together 10% better, with blind-eye assists from the ref (Roberts) when it matters most. But it wasn't in Trump's nature. Too self-absorbed in the pure kayfabe of it. 6/

The R winning formula is a trifecta: demagogue in the White House, plus ruthless Machiavellian Senate majority leader, plus Chief Justice, with partisan SC majority at his back, willing and able to play the long, slow game to disenfranchise D's, while servicing R stakeholders. 7/

O, to have all three but your demagogue is tragically flawed, slightly off - possessing rare talent, yet lacking a common, requisite character trait: the ability to defer appetitive self-gratification, be a team player. 8/

If Trump were just 10% better at doing things that dime-a-dozen ruthless pols are typically very good at, he might be coasting to victory. But 10% more mere Romney-ishness - competence at governance - might only have softened his base. 9/