Thread by @studentactivism

Biden high-up signs on to plan to limit SCOTUS justices to 18-year terms. Let's take a look at what that would mean in practice.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1320449384979509249

The bill provides for SCOTUS appointments in the first and third years of each term, and mandates that the most senior justice on the Court retire when such an appointment creates a 10-justice Court, but mandatory retirements don't apply to justices appointed prior to the Act.

So if Biden wins and Barrett is confirmed, Biden would get a new Justice in 2021, making the Court 6-4 GOP. He'd then get another in 2023, making the Court 6-5 GOP, but only if Breyer stayed alive and didn't retire.

In 2027, if the Dems win again in 2024, the Court would finally gain a Dem majority of 7-6, but only if Breyer, who'd be nearly 90, was still on the Court. If he died or retired, and nobody else did, the Dems would need until 2029 to take back the majority.

This would have been a real good plan in 2014. It's not a good plan now.

(Several folks have pointed out that a GOP senate could still stonewall appointees under this plan, and that's true. According to the text of the bill, they'd have to hold a vote within 120 days, or the appointee would be seated automatically, but they could still vote 'em down.)

If this were being proposed as an adjunct to a court expansion bill, I'd likely be a fan—raise the size of the Court to 13, give Biden a 7-6 majority, then cap justices at 18 years, and I'm fine with that. But on its own, this is no kind of fix to the problems we currently face.