The personal politics of a US-UK FTA are seriously overestimated, the real poltics on the ground ignored. (Thread)
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1320691599874162689
1) Free Trade Agreements are massively, massively about interests. POTUS and PM might like each other, that's good'n all, but that doesn't change POTUS' approach to trade. And that is America First.
That is, of course, not a description or a reading between the line approach. POTUS is absolutely explicit about it. The US expects a win. For the US. What does that mean?
As a regulatory superpower that means giving way on some things. As simple as that. Some of this can be sold as liberalization. Some of it can be dressed up in the robe of CPTPP. But some of the issues remain. No pun intended.
2) In that regard the difference between POTUS45 and POTUS46 (if they are different) is exaggerated. No matter how much 45 might like Brexit and 46 might think about global alliances - both would do a US-UK FTA. Both on US terms.
The same applies to NI. Yes. 45 likes Brexit as sticking it to the EU. But domestic politics wins 99% of the time. And that means do not offend pro-Irish Senators, because you need them.
3) So what remains? 1) Can the UK agree to the minimum terms the US insists on. And 2) The TPA issue can really delay things...
... and when I say delay then unlike the thread I linked to I don't think it'll be about lobbying every senator and passing it as a congressional executive agreement without TPA. But rather waiting for a new TPA.
4) Don't read this as skepticism. What I say is a US-UK FTA is possible. With both Trump and Biden. None of the two will be a walk in the park with free ice-cream and sprinkles to replace the heretofore popular Gelato.
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