The personal politics of a US-UK FTA are seriously overestimated, the real poltics on the ground ignored. (Thread)
1) Free Trade Agreements are massively, massively about interests. POTUS and PM might like each other, that's good'n all, but that doesn't change POTUS' approach to trade. And that is America First.
That is, of course, not a description or a reading between the line approach. POTUS is absolutely explicit about it. The US expects a win. For the US. What does that mean?
As a regulatory superpower that means giving way on some things. As simple as that. Some of this can be sold as liberalization. Some of it can be dressed up in the robe of CPTPP. But some of the issues remain. No pun intended.
2) In that regard the difference between POTUS45 and POTUS46 (if they are different) is exaggerated. No matter how much 45 might like Brexit and 46 might think about global alliances - both would do a US-UK FTA. Both on US terms.
The same applies to NI. Yes. 45 likes Brexit as sticking it to the EU. But domestic politics wins 99% of the time. And that means do not offend pro-Irish Senators, because you need them.
3) So what remains? 1) Can the UK agree to the minimum terms the US insists on. And 2) The TPA issue can really delay things...
... and when I say delay then unlike the thread I linked to I don't think it'll be about lobbying every senator and passing it as a congressional executive agreement without TPA. But rather waiting for a new TPA.
4) Don't read this as skepticism. What I say is a US-UK FTA is possible. With both Trump and Biden. None of the two will be a walk in the park with free ice-cream and sprinkles to replace the heretofore popular Gelato.

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More from @hhesterm

26 Oct
Apparently the US elections and Brexit combined lead to rather particular takes on the UK, alliances and foreign relations. Allow me to make three points in this regard. My main point is at the end. Bear with me (thread)
1) The UK is and remains an important country. It is a P5 nation. It is a significant economic and military power. It is an important ally. Yes,...
... some of the statements made in the Brexit context will worry partners, as decision-makers claim increasingly that UK law allows disregarding international law. They regard Brexit as special, but many of these statements are now made as describing a general UK position.
Read 9 tweets
23 Oct
A prime example of our incapacity to understand exponential growth today in @derspiegel 's live feed on the coronavirus: hospitalized patients in the State of NRW are up from 950 to 1420 within a week. (short thread)
The article continues that this is "far" from filling the capacity. 1320 ICU beds with ventilators are unfilled (the article is somewhat unclear on correlations of numbers). What is clear is that hospitalization numbers doubled twice within a month.
In light of that and of lag time - the development is deeply uncomfortable. Even if the 1320 free beds correlate to the currently only 148 patients on ventilators.
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
That's not what the government or the EU are doing. Allow me to give you a very short primer in three tweets: what is a Customs Union, the Single Market, a Free Trade Agreement. Bonus tweet: what is the UK negotiating. (Thread)
What is a Customs Union? A CU abolishes internal tariffs and introduces a common external tariff, so that all members have the same external tariffs (The WTO lists 18 CUs, 4 concern the EU. Others are, e.g. SACU)
What is the single merket, also referred to as the internal market or the common market? It allows free movement of goods, services and workers. To do that it provides for some harmonization and, vitally, for mutual recognition of rules (the EU, to some extent NZ-Australia)
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Es ist an der Zeit, dass wir erkennen, dass @markuspreiss zwar nicht unrecht hat, aber dass das, was er beschreibt, nicht EU-spezifisich ist - es beschreibt eine geradezu notwendige Eigenschaft der Politik an sich (thread)
Politiker verfolgen ein Ideal und werben dafür. Sie erklären eine große Idee, ehrgeizige Ziele. Dann aber müssen sie Mehrheiten bilden. Dafür müssen sie Vertreter anderer (ebenso großer) Ideale überzeugen. Kompromisse machen. Mehrheiten bilden.
Und so wird aus der großen Idee ein kleiner Schritt. Oder Stillstand, weil sich Mehrheiten nicht finden lassen, das angestrebte Ziel schlicht nicht asreichend populär ist oder mal wieder niemand die Konsequenzen tragen will.
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
A comment on UK Norway. Because by now you are either a full time Brexit watcher or mightily confused by Brexit Norway. (Thread)
Norway is part of the Single Market, but through the EEA and the EFTA court, not as an EU Member State. That makes it very difficult to achieve continuity of trade conditions. (Actually read impossible). Why?
Because the Single Market relies on using harmonisation and a bucket full of EU law. A no go for the UK. So what to do?
Read 10 tweets
21 Oct
The process of the EU-UK negotiations gov.uk/government/pub…
Some of the wording is... special...
The PM’s statement on the next steps gov.uk/government/new…
Read 6 tweets

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