Thread by @philgunson

#Venezuela opposition leader @leopoldolopez, who fled the country at the weekend after 18 months holed up in the Spanish ambassador's residence, had insisted he would never go into exile. His departure comes at a low point in opposition fortunes. What will it mean? (Thread)

The Spanish government says his decision to leave was "personal and voluntary", but Venezuela's foreign ministry accused the Spanish ambassador of being an "accomplice" to the escape of a "dangerous criminal".

https://twitter.com/jaarreaza/status/1320455392191795201

Diplomatic fireworks aside, the Maduro government may be glad to see the back of him, and Spain certainly won't be sorry their "guest" (as they insist he was) has finally checked out. The intelligence agents parked permanently outside the residence can now be redeployed.

After @jguaido, a legislator from López' Voluntad Popular party, assumed the presidency of parliament in January 2019 - and used it to claim the "interim presidency" of Venezuela - his mentor López became the presumptive opposition leader, despite being under house arrest.

In coordination with Washington, the two have pursued a policy of "maximum pressure" on Maduro, in a bid to force the president to cede power to a "transitional government" which would hold free elections. Lack of success has brought increasing tensions within opposition ranks.

On 6 December the Maduro govt intends to hold parliamentary elections - dismissed as a sham by the opposition - which will enable it to recover control of parliament. @jguaido, however, insists his "interim government" will only disband once genuine elections are held.

But López' departure for Spain leaves Guaidó as almost the last of the core group still in Venezuela. So is a government-in-exile inevitable? Guaidó's allies reject the idea, although some analysts say they will be hard-pressed to avoid it.

https://twitter.com/Presidencia_VE/status/1320734785157910528

López' will now be the loudest voice in the Venezuelan diaspora. He is charismatic and ambitious, but also divisive. His departure leaves a vacancy on the home front that others will seek to fill. Opposition unity, already showing cracks, may be a casualty.