COTTO'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION
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PENNSYLVANIA
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LIKELY GOP HOLD
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While PA-GOPers are doing terribly with pre-Election Day voting, which is postal ballot-only (even though ...
... said ballot can be requested and returned in-person at an official site), this is uniquely attributable to distrust in the entire vote-by-mail system, a problem forged as a result of policies pushed by Dem Gov Tom Wolf. By all accounts, PA-GOPers are primed for an epic ...
... turnout on Election Day. This is substantiated by the fact that relatively few postal ballots have been returned in PA thus far, and those which are returned lean near-unbelievably Dem. GOPers have gained massively in voter registration and public polling which I deem ...
... reliable has consistently shown DJT competitive or ahead there. All of this considered, it seems likely to me that Trump will hold the state this year, especially because a successful court challenge to Wolf's VBM policies appears likelier than it did just a few days ago.
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Rainbow Jeremy of PredictIt may well make a load of cash with his bets this year -- by aggressively positioning himself against whatever he encourages folks to do. I think he wants cheap DJT shares in the GA and TX markets, so he is encouraging lemmings to abandon Trump in ...
... droves. With GOPers doing as well as they are in pre-Election Day voting, one would imagine that folks might see through this apparent charade, but, as the old saying goes, a fool and his money are soon parted. Lots of damn fools out there, sad to say.
Another possibility: RJ doubled-down on Biden shares in the TX and GA markets early on, believing that his candidate would ultimately score a landslide, carrying these states accordingly. Now that this is all-but-impossible, RJ might want to pump the price of Biden shares up ...
An interesting phenomenon in this election cycle is that swing state public polling is closer than it was in 2016, while national public polls show Biden up by several points. On its face, this situation should not exist, but it does. From my perspective, it can mean that ...
... there is some massive flaw in projecting the electorate, which throws of nearly all public surveys, or -- perhaps -- these polls, while still oversampling left-leaners because right-leaning folks distrust polling, are picking up a startling reality. This would be that ...
... Biden is going to win safe Dem (and high-population) states by blowout margins while being in the margin-of-error within swing states. That suggests Biden may win the popular vote by some heretofore-thought-impossible margin while losing the Electoral College narrowly. We ...
I have been asking myself why it is that so many folks believe that Biden is on the cusp of some landslide. My inquiry led me to the fever swamp which is the PredictIt comments board, where lefties reign supreme, and their apparent ringleader is a fellow named 'Rainbow ...
... Jeremy' (I promise that I am not making this up). RJ has less than 2K followers on Twitter, where he describes himself as a whale of PredictIt who makes a living from his betting. Some folks deem him a 'Master-of-the-Universe'-type. RJ claims that Biden has the election ...
... sewn up. RJ also claims that Biden is seriously undervalued in -- of all places -- Texas. Fortunately, for sanity's sake, the TX-PI market has not moved in a pro-Biden direction, but RJ seems to have a cadre of PI bettors on his side. These folks use his 'analyses' to ...
COTTO'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION
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NORTH CAROLINA
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LIKELY GOP HOLD
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Despite an utterly pathetic showing with in-person early voting, North Carolina Republicans have rebounded to ...
... a point at which they are ahead of where they were at this time in 2016, when they won the state for Trump. While NC Democrats hold a colossal vote-by-mail lead, this seems unlikely to overcome the ever-better WI-GOP EV performance, as well as the almost-certain tidal ...
... wave of GOPer turnout on Election Day. Keep in mind that, in NC, far more GOPers are determined to hold their votes for ED, as well as that Independent voters are far from a progressive bastion. I anticipate that Trump will win NC by about the same margin as he did last ...
COTTO'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION
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WISCONSIN
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LIKELY GOP HOLD
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After almost a week of in-person early voting, which is counted as vote-by-mail, and a far longer duration of VBM, ...
... it is apparent that the Democrats of Wisconsin have fallen far short of their goals in this election cycle. Considering the near-certainty of massive GOP turnout on Election Day, it seems unavoidable that Trump is favored to win the state. This has been clear enough for ...
... well over a week now, but after GOPers gained a narrow majority with combined VBM/EV returns (per TargetSmart), the situation looks beyond doubt at the present time. While WI-Dems can theoretically mount a comeback over the next week, if such a thing has not happened ...