Coming up on @realmoney
Not All Investment Views Are Created Equal
* All market views are not equal - nearly every investment view should have a different level of conviction
* After Monday's sizeable and swift dive, my short term market outlook is now blurry
Not All Investment Views Are Created Equal
* All market views are not equal - nearly every investment view should have a different level of conviction
* After Monday's sizeable and swift dive, my short term market outlook is now blurry
* It may not be the time to be 'balls to the walls' (in either long or short direction)
* A large put position satisfies me for now
* If I was pushed for a short term view I would guess that the near term outlook is a bit more positive than negative - but not materially so
* A large put position satisfies me for now
* If I was pushed for a short term view I would guess that the near term outlook is a bit more positive than negative - but not materially so
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
--William Butler Yates
I like to write that the only certainty is the lack of certainty.
But, as an old acquaintance recently said to me, today there are more possible outcomes (some of them
--William Butler Yates
I like to write that the only certainty is the lack of certainty.
But, as an old acquaintance recently said to me, today there are more possible outcomes (some of them
adverse) than at any other time in history.
Strategists, commentators and other "talking heads" are fond of voicing a strong market view and conviction - even when the uncertainties are considerable. Few say, "I don't know," as I suspect they think it indicates "weakness."
Strategists, commentators and other "talking heads" are fond of voicing a strong market view and conviction - even when the uncertainties are considerable. Few say, "I don't know," as I suspect they think it indicates "weakness."
That is plain silly and phony. To me, this sort of confident narrative is really a sign of weakness, as conviction can not be consistently strong when viewed against those uncertainties.
Though I don't always succeed, these days (in particular), I aim to be flexible in view
Though I don't always succeed, these days (in particular), I aim to be flexible in view
and opportunistic in practice.
The concept of conviction is rarely discussed when people offer up market views - but I will harp on the subject this morning.... @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmone @ScottWapnerCNBC @riskreversal @lizclaman @carlquintanilla @lizclaman
The concept of conviction is rarely discussed when people offer up market views - but I will harp on the subject this morning.... @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmone @ScottWapnerCNBC @riskreversal @lizclaman @carlquintanilla @lizclaman
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