As the election approaches, mounting evidence indicates the US-China deal is failing to live up to Trump’s $200 billion purchase pledge. No single reason explains why, but 15 products help tell the story.

My latest
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
Start with the pandemic. Of course COVID-19 played a role. A negative demand shock for US exports.

But China's economy has recovered more than most. And China has continued to import in 2020 from other countries... Image
In terms of products in the Phase One agreement, let's start with manufacturing. MANUFACTURING is 70% of the deal.

Guess which two sectors did well in 2020?

Guess which two sectors did not. The WHY behind the poor performance is complicated, but it is NOT only the pandemic... Image
The politically outsized US farm sector? It is only 22% of the Phase One deal, but 100% of the political emphasis.

SOYBEANS are 60% of US farm exports to China. They have not caught up.

PORK (African Swine Fever) and CORN (WTO dispute) have done well, but for other reasons... Image
Finally, ENERGY products.

The targets were enormous and dubious, the US exports are not close... Image
Trump's trade war has failed to address what really ails the US-China trade relationship. The United States and China need to get back to negotiating over the policies that remain untouched by the phase one agreement.

It is time for something new.
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

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More from @ChadBown

29 Oct
Wondering about candidate Biden’s economic policy priorities?

The very great @Titonka joins @CardiffGarcia on @TheIndicator to explain

🎙 PODCAST 🎙 [9 mins] npr.org/2020/10/29/929…
I listened all the way through the episode. Twice. Did not once hear the word “tariffs.”
Part II: President Trump’s economic policy priorities in a second term.

Again, the very great @Titonka joins @CardiffGarcia on @TheIndicator to explain

🎙 PODCAST 🎙 [9 mins]
npr.org/2020/10/30/929…
Read 4 tweets
25 Aug
YESTERDAY: USTR Lighthizer & China's Liu He met to discuss Trump's Phase One deal.

TODAY (NEW DATA RELEASE!!!): Through the first seven months of 2020, China’s purchases remained at less than 50% of the year-to-date targets set out in the agreement... 1/
piie.com/research/piie-…
CHINA'S PURCHASES OF FARM PRODUCTS:

Through July, China’s purchases of US agricultural products were only at 39% (US export statistics) or 46% (Chinese import statistics) of their 2020 year-to-date targets set out in the agreement...

[soybean GIF choices pretty lame. sorry] 2/
CHINA'S PURCHASES OF ENERGY PRODUCTS:

Through July, China’s purchases of US energy products were only at 24% (US export statistics) or 17% (Chinese import statistics) of their year-to-date targets set out in the agreement... 3/
Read 6 tweets
24 Aug
APRIL 2020: Trump administration tells 3M it cannot export PPE to Canada, threatening to cut Canada off from a key supplier of N95 masks.

AUGUST 2020: Canadian government subsidizes 3M investment at an Ontario plant.

FUTURE: US exports to Canada fall. 1/
cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Here was 3M's extraordinary press release on April 3, after the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act, telling 3M to no longer export N95 respirators to Canada 2/

👉🏾news.3m.com/English/3m-sto…
On April 17, 2020, the Trump administration backed off. It issued a revised rule exempting "Shipments for Which the Final Destination is Canada or Mexico."

But Trump's damage was already done. For Canada, the US was now an unreliable supplier 3/

federalregister.gov/documents/2020…
Read 4 tweets
27 Jul
HELP WANTED

Scientists are coming up with COVID-19 vaccines. But their efforts will be wasted unless we set up an enforceable global vaccine distribution scheme now.

But this is a trade problem we know how to solve.

My latest, with @TomBollyky 1/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Admittedly, this is a super hard trade problem to solve.

First, COMPULSORY LICENSING is unlikely to work.

Manufacturing vaccines is high tech manufacturing, and will only be feasible in a handful of mostly rich countries.

Poor countries are going to need to IMPORT it. 2/
We need trade. Fine. So what?

Governments whose scientists discover it first are likely to engage in export bans (vaccine nationalism) to vaccinate their populations first

Eg, already during the pandemic, China, France, Germany, the EU, US and others did this to hoard PPE... 3/
Read 15 tweets
9 Jul
In @ForeignAffairs, USTR Robert E. Lighthizer recently wrote that President Trump “has sought to balance the benefits of trade liberalization with policies that prioritize the dignity of work.”

I disagreed. I disagreed so strongly, I wrote down why. 1/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Lighthizer argues Trump imposed tariffs on steel & aluminum in 2018 to dignify work of Americans who make metals.

The claim is revisionist history. And by imposing tariffs, Trump & Lighthizer chose to pit one working American against another. 2/

econofact.org/will-steel-tar…
Lighthizer legitimately identifies “market-distorting state capitalism” as a significant challenge facing the US.

But in contrast to his predecessors, Trump chose a one-pronged, unilateral approach to China.

Tariffs. With very little to show of it. 3/
piie.com/research/piie-…
Read 11 tweets
18 May
We have developed a new @PIIE tracker to update and keep tabs on China's purchases of US goods relative to its commitments undertaken as part of Trump's phase one deal... 1/

piie.com/research/piie-…
Under its legal terms, US export statistics and/or Chinese import statistics can be used to assess the deal. We report both.

Through March 2020, China’s purchases of *ALL* covered products were ONLY at

• 40% (US exports)
• 46% (Chinese imports)

…of year-to-date targets. 2/
Through March 2020, China’s purchases of covered *AGRICULTURAL* products were ONLY at

• 37% (US exports)
• 56% (Chinese imports)

…of year-to-date targets. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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