Thread by @ChadBown

As the election approaches, mounting evidence indicates the US-China deal is failing to live up to Trump’s $200 billion purchase pledge. No single reason explains why, but 15 products help tell the story.

My latest
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Start with the pandemic. Of course COVID-19 played a role. A negative demand shock for US exports.

But China's economy has recovered more than most. And China has continued to import in 2020 from other countries...

In terms of products in the Phase One agreement, let's start with manufacturing. MANUFACTURING is 70% of the deal.

Guess which two sectors did well in 2020?

Guess which two sectors did not. The WHY behind the poor performance is complicated, but it is NOT only the pandemic...

The politically outsized US farm sector? It is only 22% of the Phase One deal, but 100% of the political emphasis.

SOYBEANS are 60% of US farm exports to China. They have not caught up.

PORK (African Swine Fever) and CORN (WTO dispute) have done well, but for other reasons...

Finally, ENERGY products.

The targets were enormous and dubious, the US exports are not close...

Trump's trade war has failed to address what really ails the US-China trade relationship. The United States and China need to get back to negotiating over the policies that remain untouched by the phase one agreement.

It is time for something new.
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…