If Joe Biden wins on November 3, the Trump-to-Biden presidential transition will begin one week from today. Even in normal times, the transition period is the most perilous moment in American politics. This year, we should be especially worried. Here's why... [thread] 1/
Trump's refusal to leave office is the nightmare scenario. But even if he were to lose & accept the results, he could still wreak significant damage between election & inauguration days.
If Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20, he will immediately assume responsibility for everything from nuclear launch codes to pandemic response, economic policy, and counterterrorism. The transition is his time to get ready for this herculean task. 4/
A smooth transition is of paramount national importance, particularly at a time of ongoing upheaval at home and abroad.
Michael Lewis explored the dangers of Trump's haphazard transition in The Fifth Risk: amazon.com/Fifth-Risk-Mic… 5/
Yet there is ample reason to worry that the outgoing Trump team will disregard the laws and the norms that are supposed to govern the transition period.
Obstruction or even sabotage could take many forms... 7/
Team Trump could undertake dramatic policy steps that lock in its policy priorities, whether a precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan or assertive steps toward Iran or China, without consulting with Biden.
They could also withhold critical intelligence from the incoming administration on matters of national security — whether imminent threats to the US or ongoing covert operations.
And/or an outgoing Trump team could deny access to the agency landing teams and senior officials presidents-elect typically announce right after the election.
Any one of these steps would present a dangerous hindrance to a Biden Administration’s ability to govern from its first day in office; all three would jeopardize American national security at a time of acute crisis both at home and abroad with potentially devastating results. 11/
All eyes are rightly on the election for now. But a decisive Biden victory will not be the end of the road. We must guard against the danger that American national security, prosperity & health could get lost in transition. 12/12
During the 2016 campaign, @thomaswright08 brilliantly distilled Trump's worldview: antagonism toward allies, adoration of strongmen, & aversion to trade. 2/ politico.com/magazine/story…
Sharp observers like @ColinKahl & @HalBrands argued this "dark and nightmarish" worldview would constitute a grand strategy for the Trump Administration -- albeit a disastrous one. 3/
DOD may hope that strategy & operations will return to business as usual post-COVID. But the longer this pandemic continues -- and the more incompetent the US response -- the greater strain it will place on readiness, alliances, and even recruitment & retention. A few examples:1/
ALLIANCES & OVERSEAS BASING: Japan complains about US military COVID procedures at already-controversial Okinawa base:2/ militarytimes.com/news/your-mili…
NUCLEAR WEAPONS: Big changes to the rotational schedules of the ICBM missileers, who switched from 1-day to 2-week stretches in underground silos:3/ usnews.com/news/national-…