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Greg Sargent Profile picture
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28 Oct, 4 tweets, 3 min read
A remarkable thing is happening: Trump is sliding bigly among white voters across the board. Coronavirus-denial and open racism are failing him. It's a far cry from the post-2016 pundit awe of his mystical grip on the Real American White Voter. New piece:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
It's a perverse end to all this that coronavirus is ravaging Wisconsin while Trump basically shrugs, potentially putting it out of reach for him.

Meanwhile, his LIBERATE MICHIGAN! fake-populism has flopped: Voters blame Trump over Whitmer for their feud:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
A new analysis from @Nate_Cohn and The Upshot shows Biden making very broad gains among white voters, both college educated and non-college, with notable shifts in the industrial Midwest.

The analysis also shows Trump's race-war strategy has failed:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Nate_Cohn White voter backlash to Trump's incitement of violence/racial conflict suggests White America may be shifting on racial justice.

The hopeful view is this creates potential for a Third Reconstruction, or what @AdamSerwer calls an "anti-racist majority":

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

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More from @ThePlumLineGS

Greg Sargent Profile picture
29 Oct
Remain vigilant, folks.

The Pennsylvania AG, @JoshShapiroPA, tells me that Republicans will likely use late ballots "as a hook to challenge *all* mail in ballots."

“We have a sitting president who’s actively trying to undermine this election," he says:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@JoshShapiroPA It's amazing, but here we are:

Pennsylvania state officials are in the position of taking active *defensive* steps to prevent SCOTUS from helping Trump invalidate millions of lawful ballots.

I talked to the Pennsylvania attorney general about this:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… ImageImage
@JoshShapiroPA Pennsylvania AG, on Trump:

"He knows that if all legal eligible votes are counted, he’s more likely than not going to come out on the losing side.”

"Trump keeps saying he's backed by a "silent majority." But his corrupt actions show he knows it's a lie:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Image
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
28 Oct
I suggested yesterday that the Wisconsin decision didn't necessarily mean SCOTUS would do the same in Pennsylvania, and you all mocked me mercilessly for it: wapo.st/3kGwD46
However, I should be clear, this doesn't remotely mean all future threats are averted, as @steve_vladeck explains here. There's still reason to doubt that SCOTUS will swing the election, but it's certainly not impossible.
@steve_vladeck Notable: I think this, from the PA decision, may make it harder for Republicans to get the court to order a full scale halt to the vote count. If the late arriving ballots are segregated, it's harder to say the whole pool is tainted by commingling. Nightmare less likely now: ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
27 Oct
Trump is in a panic and a fury this morning. He's clearly hoping the Supreme Court will save him. But this is very unlikely to happen. I gamed out various scenarios with help from experts. Here's why this scheme is also likely to blow up in Trump's face:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
After WI decision, fear is SCOTUS might nix late ballots in PA, too.

But to do that, the conservatives would have to change the rules in the middle of the election, rules *they themselves* helped establish.

@steve_vladeck is skeptical this will happen:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@steve_vladeck It's highly unlikely that *all* these things happen at once:

* SCOTUS nixes late ballots in PA, which would require a level of cynicism even they might not be willing to display

* There are enough late ballots to be decisive

* It all turns on PA

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 5 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
20 Oct
House-district polling is telling a grim story for Trump.

I spoke to @Redistrict about all the private data he's seeing.

"Trump is underperforming 2016 margins by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts," he told me.

Much more in our interview:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict Some highlights from my chat with @Redistrict.

He says Trump is underperforming relative to 2016 by more than 10 points in upscale suburban districts.

Trump is overperforming in Hispanic districts, but overall this mirrors Biden's big national lead:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict Key point: @Redistrict says House district polling shows Biden getting halfway back to Obama-2012 levels in working class white districts across the board.

"Trump needs to get back to his 2016 numbers in those places to have any chance," he tells me.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
20 Oct
Trump's demand this morning for William Barr to prosecute the bogus Hunter Biden affair should be understood as a display of weakness and panic. On numerous fronts, Trump's schemes to corrupt the election have imploded. Even Barr is failing him. New piece:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Nothing but failure:

* Trump's corrupt vaccine scheme fizzles

* No Durham report

* Record early voting makes stolen election far less likely

* Ron Johnson report is a sad joke

* Trump raging at media ("criminal!") for not amplifying Hunter nonsense

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Numerous news outlets have now confirmed FBI is examining whether materials on the Hunter laptop are linked to Russian disinformation.

The parallels to impeachment are glaring: Here again, Trump just wants Barr to *announce* some kind of investigation:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
15 Oct
The single most important fact about Trump's new fake scandal about Hunter Biden and his emails is that lots of news outlets are running stories about Hunter Biden and his emails. Media coverage of disinformation inevitably rewards it. My new piece:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Steve Bannon candidly explained how all this works. The key is to somehow vault the disinformation out of the conservative media bubble and into mainstream news coverage, where it gets laundered and legitimized simply by virtue of getting covered there:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
It's obvious that coverage of disinformation, even negative, rewards its purveyors.

@brianbeutler calls this the "conservative shitstorm" problem.

It's a real pitfall, and TBF, there isn't a clear answer. But media figures often won't admit to it:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 5 tweets

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