1/ A thread on what theories of guerilla warfare, college football, and running a company have in common.
2/ Let’s start with football (of the American variety). Generally, the way that the game is played is that there is a head coach along with an offensive and defensive coordinator.
3/ Generally, the coordinators are watching the games from the sidelines (or the box) and will call in specific plays to the offense and defense respectively.
These plays are generally “fixed.”
4/ That is, every player has a specific role and they would do the same time every time it was called.
One play might look something like this.
5/ When the ball is snapped, the play starts and each of the receivers on the outside (these are the ones that catch the ball) would be told to run a specific route, indicated by the line with an arrow.
6/ This style of football kind of reminds me of chess. The coordinators are the chess masters and the players are the pieces on the board, each with a specific and circumscribed role.
7/ Over the last ten or twenty years, there’s been a bit of a shift in how the game has been played by some teams. One of the biggest changes is that it is increasingly common for the players to make more of their own decisions on the field
8/ Take this play as an example.
You can see that all the receivers have what is usually called “option routes.”
There are multiple arrows branching off of each receiver and the receiver has the option to choose which route they want to run.
9/ They are choosing that option based on what the defense is giving them.
This strategy devolves a lot of decision making from the coaches to the players. The players are no longer like chess pieces that only move in one direction, they have a fair amount of autonomy.
10/ The downside to this approach is that it relies on receivers and quarterbacks to “read” the defense the same.
If the quarterback and the receiver are in sync and make the same read of the defense, then this approach is incredibly effective.
11/ The essential shift here is that decision making is devolved further down the chain of command. When done well, this gives the offense a huge advantage.
If you are playing chess and all your players can move like queens then it’s an enormous advantage.
12/ You have a much larger degree of freedom and can beat a much better opponent. I call this The Farthest Down the Chain Principle. You want to push the decision making as far down the chain as is reasonable.
13/ This realization is at the heart of John Boyd’s OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide Act) Loop strategy which studied how insurgent guerilla forces could triumph over large enemies.
14/ The Vietnam/American War was much different from the World Wars earlier in the 20th century, because the Vietnamese applied this same technique of devolving decision-making down the chain and as a result were able to fight successfully against a much larger force.
15/ This same principle is true in running a company.
18/ The logic behind pushing decisions down the chain to the individual closest to the problem is that the person closest to the problems understands the problem and its many details the best.
19/ John Boyd referred to this as Fingerspitzengefuhl, a German word that translates to fingertip feeling. taylorpearson.me/fingerspitzeng…
Fingerspitzengefuhl works in concert with another key principle: Schwerpunkt.
20/ Schwerpunkt literally translates as the center of gravity or emphasis but is best understood as focus or the main priority.
In military terms, it is usually the geographic point of attack.
21/ In business terms, it is having a clear focus and empowering your team to make decisions for themselves in an uncertain environment.
22/ There are lots of ways to do this, but it generally looks something like quarterly goals taylorpearson.me/planning/), having a mission statement (taylorpearson.me/core-values-li…), and referencing guiding principles in your calls.
23/ The Farthest Down the Chain Principle means always asking the question “What is the farthest down the chain that I can push this decision?”
You want to maximize the autonomy of people. This also has the nice benefit that you tend to attract the best people.
24/ The best people believe they are good and they want more control. It’s also the case that autonomy increases job satisfaction.
25/ So pushing decision-making down the chain, when done well, means you end up with better people that are happy at their job and are more competitive against others. That’s a pretty big advantage.
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Over the years, I've tried to keep a list of criteria for deciding on whether to take on a project.
Here are the 9 questions I ask myself now
1. If you didn’t make any money, would you still have had a great time?
2. Is the project a purple cow? Imagine having a conversation at the last cocktail party (or even better, actually have one) do people’s eyebrows raise and say “cool"
1/ The investment management business is turning into the media business, but most investment managers don't realize it.
2/ This is a natural result of aggregation theory (stratechery.com/aggregation-th…) applying itself to the investment management business.
3/ On the internet, attention is scarce and anyone that can aggregate a specific type of attention will be able to aggregate that and "match" it with investment management.
Voters have a few radical views that they are the most passionate about so candidates tend to be more radical than people that vote for them
Whatever issues are getting most talked about is what people end up voting on.
"In 2012, both sides talked about health care. In 2016, they didn’t. And so the correlation between views on health care and which candidate people voted for went down."
I believe for most investors, the easiest way to improve their risk-adjusted returns is not to get better at "picking winners" but to get better at diversification and portfolio construction.
A short 🧵 on why that is and how to do it...
As a simple example, let’s say you have the ability to buy two assets out of a possible three choices.
The first two assets (Asset A and Asset B) have positive returns but are highly correlated; they track one another and the business cycle. Both do well when markets are up and poorly when markets are down.
Has any bitcoin/Austrian person written a good analysis of Bitcoin in light of Graeber's debt thesis?
As I understand it, a key point of his theory is that inequality grows over time and so you need some sort of reset every 100 years or so in the form of a debt jubilee.
This is because economics ultimately becomes political.
When .1% have everything then everyone else just comes to kill them and take their stuff so the wealthy end up either forgiving the debt or letting it be inflated away.
Is there a good refutation to this point?
If it is true, what are possible futures? Some Diamond Age/Snow Crash city-state future with high levels of inequality? Something else?
1/ Francis Fukuyama's Origins of Political Order is one of the most insightful books on understanding what's going on today in geopolitics and political systems that I've read.
Here's a short summary 🧵
2/ At the core of his thinking is the notion of an institution as a "stable, valued, recurring patterns of behavior that persist beyond the tenure of individual leaders."
3/ Different Countries today face one of 3 challenges
1. No functioning institutions - E.g. Post-Qaddafi Libya
2. Decaying institutions - E.g. United States
3. Social change outstripping existing institutions - E.g. Turkey and Brazil