ICYMI: Yesterday I recapped the recent, and uniformly-negative, assessments of 3+ years of "America First" trade & industrial policy cato.org/blog/checking-…
I didn't get into the weeds in that post and instead let the headlines do the heavy-lifting, but here are the general conclusions for those who don't subscribe and/or are lazy: /2
1) Steel tariffs didn't work: they boosted prices & goosed investment short-term, BUT 1) caused real damage to steel-consuming manufacturers, exporters hit by retaliation, & "rust belt" state economies; & 2) steelcos started shedding jobs/factories when the sugar high faded /3
2) Trump's "anti-outsourcing" threats didn't work: US cos, even in Trump's crosshairs like Carrier, kept (quietly) making labor decisions based on longstanding fundamentals.
(Note: the overall job mkt was still good; disruption is a "price" of having a dynamic mkt economy) /4
(Note: the overall job mkt was still good; disruption is a "price" of having a dynamic mkt economy) /4
3) The administration's industrial policies haven't worked: beyond the well-known Kodak/Foxconn/Harley-Davidson/etc debacles, "Rust Belt" jobs have actually lagged the rest of the country /5
4) The China tariffs not only didn't result in new US manufacturing (cos that left China mostly moved to Vietnam, India, & other low-cost mfg countries), but actually made things worse for many US manufacturers & the economy (especially due to the uncertainty) /6
The lesson: just because you call something "America First," doesn't mean it's actually good for the country. And instead of standing in the ocean promising to make the waves stop, Trump & other US pols (*cough*Biden*cough*) should accept reality and start building boats /x
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