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Oct 29, 2020 24 tweets 10 min read Read on X
"The SEN handled 68,361 transactions in the quarter, a 70% sequential increase from the 2020 second quarter and a 455% increase as compared to the 2019 third quarter"
So the chart below is the one above but if you didn't like the crypto aspect of that then this is another one to pass by - however, whilst there's a little more of the same this has an additional angle: this is kind of a bank proxy for what #GAN is (was?) meant to be to gambling. Image
Here it is, selling for just under a whisker of TBV - this bank, MBV Financial, $MBVF is growing like a weed not only to a small crypto side of things but in large part thanks to the fact that they're directly linked to deposit taking for the likes of Draft Kings etc Image
Along with $SI above, this is another bank that instead of quietly stagnating, is attempting to adapt. Image
As correctly pointed out by @relativevalue00, the name is MVB Financial $MVBF rather than MBV Financial $MBVF They are indeed illiquid and have the advantage over MBV of actually existing. Many thanks for the heads up!

Seems like quite a big number here for $MVBF Image
A couple of interesting bits on $SI - thanks to
@dopamine_uptake for flagging them up

Podcast with CEO - excellent to understand the company and what APIs mean for banking. You can see why some trade below book and others don't

podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6L…

Cathie hard on it Image
"bank" thread update three weeks on. Image
Image
Net interest margin of 3.4%. Trading at 19% over TBV Image
I was thinking about mentioning this bank yesterday: $EBC, a recent demutualisation but decided on the whole it was too boring and too little to say. Good deposit growth ex-ppp; cost of deposits practically nil and non-interest income exposure of ⅓ of the total. Image
Shortly after not tweeting about it, they then announced a merger - the interesting thing here is the price: 1.75 TBV of the target. It seems a bit on the high side but I don't know the target.

businesswire.com/news/home/2021…
Here's another bank trading perhaps by now, a little under that 1.75x - it's the pipsqueak in the previous few tweets and the one just above $20B cap $MTB in 22nd place in terms of number of deposit accounts. Image
Here's a December Form 4 from the CEO Mazza, as you can see he likes the stock. Image
And thanks to @walnutavevalue's sharp eyes, we find that he actually likes it enough to borrow money to exercise as many options as he can - as you'd imagine vs his $700K salary and $2M overall annual comp, a $25M stock position means he has to stretch. Image
What does his board see to be running a 15% ownership stake with him now at +6% and the 2nd largest holder of stock overall? Image
My guess is that it's probably similar to the highlighted items in the $EDC statement above. Deposits are growing in the order of a couple of % a week - nice but that only takes you so far; you can only make so much on lending

They're probably also looking non-interest income Image
Integrations with BNPL players, card aquiring, gaming wallets - the whole nine yards; things like this below also discovered by @walnutavevalue. Imagine the fervour if such things were available publicly! ImageImage
$MVBF's latest Q: red with the fintech contribution to NIM at double the level of last year, it's starting to become a material offset to spread pressure. Blue shows some of the cost side benefits from an earlier sale of 4 branches. Green's the next sale, I assume similar to come Image
Market starting to appreciate the virtues of this one, perhaps fans of $TBBK. ImageImageImageImage
I'll bury this here. Above is $CCB. If you look at the kind of premiums the differentiated banks got / are getting whether that was crypto for $SI at the top, gaming for $MVBF or the beginnings of white labelling for $CCB then whilst there's an awful lot not to like about $BMTX..
..then it's not entirely impossible that <1x '21 sales and 20% (extremely) adjusted EBITDA margin may be too cheap.
Results from $BMTX, decent enough I'd think. Operating cashflow apparently $9.5m for the quarter. The line with "other" seems to be whitelabel work for what I assume must either be $GOOG or $TMUS Image
Whatever BaaS fees are, they're growing awfully quickly.. Image

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More from @hareng_rouge

Dec 22, 2021
$RADA makes small tactical military radars. The recent sell off hasn't made it cheap but it has begun to bring it closer to GARP territory

It's a rare pure-play on a theme that's perhaps not yet widely appreciated and is hard to access directly but you can see it in the numbers
Here's where it trades on a forward sales multiple against some of the big diversified defence majors - has lost much of the premium and now sits a little off the top end. Brits bottom of the pile.
Same group of majors but here on forward EBITDA multiples and towards the bottom end excluding the UK companies.
Read 19 tweets
Nov 12, 2021
Naive view but I think Hunting #HTG may be on its way back to Covid lows because it's orphaned on the wrong market and there's an information disconnect - if so, my guess is that it's pretty oversold here. Image
The company isn't a pure play but it's good enough to say it's very shale exposed, towards the completion side vs the drilling side of things.

Three year chart to around May 2021: HTG in green vs several US oil services ETFs - as you can see, they trade in lockstep. Image
Same chart but on a 2021 YTD basis and it starts diverging somewhere around mid summer. Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
IG Design #IGR was a ten bagger in the 5 years leading up to Covid. An update a fortnight ago dropped the shares by half and erased all the gains in the most recent five years. Knife catching and broken growth this soon is almost always a mistake but IG may be an exception here. ImageImageImage
My basic premise with it is that the accounts are a complicated nightmare (CTRL+f for "adjust" is 232 hits in the last FY report) but most immediately, that this is right now a gross margin story - I think there are grounds to at least consider whether IG can be given a pass here
Unfortunately, it does mean walking through it so grab a.. (just no) so anyway, here's the rough idea: Pre-covid in white, M&A growth darling, 20% gross margins. Forget the op margin for now - I'm stripping out the adjustments that made adjusted whatever go up and to the right Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 5, 2021
Saw a one-line tweet the other day mentioning McColls #MCLS as one of 2 highest conviction names.

I think I see why: there's a metamorphosis happening underneath and reasonable path to PE and FCF multiples between 2-3 plus a growth narrative, all under that lovely grim exterior
Story is that they're shrinking. 1500+ stores 2 years back, to 1050 by the end of FY21

Also changing: culling small newsagent shops to focus towards larger, more profitable grocery-heavy stores. So far, so worthy - but the real interest is the transformation into Morrisons Daily
Company raised recently to accelerate a programme converting 350 stores into these Mini Morrisons. They're at 56 today, will be 350 by end FY22

Cost is £90K per shop, what they call "cash payback" is 2-3 years and so far they're providing pretty immediate LFL sales growth of 25%
Read 12 tweets
Sep 23, 2021
What does Sneller see to get such sudden FOMO for the old zombie that is Iofina #IOF? If you recall the name, it should produce revulsion but a few things have changed and there's a chance it may be about to make some money. ImageImage
IOF produces Iodine in the US via O&G brine. Iodine is a beneficiary of industrial recovery generally and covid specifically - the largest use is used as x-ray contrast which may benefit demand from catch up on delayed hospital treatment.

And because it's 2021, inevitably: Image
Production is trapped on the wrong side of the Pacific: the two major production centres are Japan and Chile - so you have the obvious logistics issues for both and potentially politics for the latter.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 20, 2021
I think it's worth revisiting Aquis #AQX here in light of a couple of data points that have since come out.

There are three main parts to the co: a stock exchange (AQSE); a tech licencing biz and their multilateral trading facility (AQXE) - it's this last one I want to look at.
First is the RNS from earlier this month announcing their MTF (investopedia.com/terms/m/multil…) had achieved 6.2% market share. Across the €53.6B traded on AQXE in July, this came out to €1.7B a day.

Those 6.2% and €1.7B are quite significant numbers and I'll come back to them later Image
In the period since the beginning of 2018 market share has risen from 1.72% to that 6.2% above. Here's how that value traded looks. Image
Read 15 tweets

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