Is #Bitcoin Eating the World?

$BTC has leapt back into the limelight after taking a backseat to the “summer of DeFi” craze.

And I can't help but notice the landscape shifting beneath our feet.

Few thoughts from my latest #DelphiDaily 👇

h/t @RaoulGMI for the title inspiration
Initially, I thought this was just another intermarket move driven by the reallocation of capital from big winners back to $BTC.

But something seems different this time around...
Ask anyone what’s been driving $BTC recently & you'll likely get a handful of different answers.

We've had a series of notable headlines:
- @PayPal's integration of select crypto assets
- Corporates taking sizable $BTC positions
- Prominent fund mgr's staking their reps on $BTC
But simply looking at the chart, $BTC is breaking out against the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, CNY.

#Bitcoin just hit a fresh 33-month high against the IMF's SDR and is breaking out against its chief rival, gold.
Look no further than @RaoulGMI for some outstanding context on this topic in one of his latest epic tweet threads...

[Relative Performance Matters]

Short-term price fluctuations are often times more noise than substance.

But the last several weeks have been particularly important in that they’ve positioned $BTC as a diversified, investable asset on the world's biggest stage.
The longer and more extensive the bifurcation becomes between BTC and conventional asset classes, the more likely it will start to garner greater attention from traditional market players.
Bitcoin is often touted as an uncorrelated asset...

...but try convincing an FA of its diversification benefits when it's down 30% and everything else is heading higher.

Periods in which BTC drastically outperforms are when the “uncorrelated” narrative can really take hold.
What’s been more encouraging is BTC’s resilience despite the recent spike in market volatility.

The $VIX just touched its highest level since early June while the $SPX is on pace for its biggest weekly decline over the same period.

Yet $BTC didn’t seem to flinch...
Bitcoin has sat atop the list of the world’s best performing assets for most of 2020.

Yes, BTC had one of the most violent drawdowns in the depths of the March sell-off, but even at its worst, bitcoin was only down ~31% YTD.

We know BTC wasn't the only one taking a hit.
Time horizons are a fickle thing; even year-to-date measurements are rather arbitrary.

The point is those with strong hands who held (or even added to) their BTC position have been handsomely rewarded with its outstanding recovery.
Could $BTC fall back towards $10K? Absolutely.

The road to a new ATH has been (and will be) filled w. significant drawdowns; no asset ever goes up and to the right in a straight line.
The bigger takeaway is the foundation upon which bitcoin is built is only strengthening by the day.

And at this juncture, secular flows into $BTC are likely to provide a stronger floor than in years past.
Now, it's highly likely we also see substantial demand for gold, at least for the foreseeable future...

...but ask any Millennial what they’d rather invest in for the long haul and see how many choose the precious metal over its digitally-native superior.
[No Turning Back]

At the end of the day, the entire crypto movement just has too much momentum and is capturing too much mindshare for it to turn back now.

The revolution isn’t on the horizon; it’s already here.

delphidigital.io/reports/is-bit…

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More from @Kevin_Kelly_II

9 Oct
0/ The world has morphed into one big macro trade.

Asset prices are increasingly driven by global policy expectations rather than underlying fundamentals.

Deflation + insolvency risk is rising.

Potential knock-on effects are too important to ignore.

Thread 👇👇
1/ There's still many “known unknowns” i.e. risks we know about but don't know if/when they’ll materialize.

Powell & Co. could send markets flying on a whim. Trump could send markets flailing with one tweet.

But 1 thing is certain: our reality has changed & the risks are real.
2/ TLDR; greater deflation + insolvency risk could create a potentially challenging environment for asset prices.

The key to the recovery & inflation narrative lies in the banking system, not QE + record low rates.

Consensus is heavily skewed towards a weaker USD.
Read 59 tweets

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