SBF Profile picture
29 Oct, 12 tweets, 2 min read
1) Some thoughts on conviction
3) I think that BTC is more valuable than DOGE (though, honestly, 2020 wouldn't have been the same without a brief glimmer of hope).

That is not very surprising or interesting: pretty much everyone does.
4) But sometimes I have beliefs others don't.


In particular, why do I have them even though I know others disagree?
5) Usually what I'm looking for is:

a) I understand why others think what they think
b) I either think:
--others don't understand why I think what I think
--I understand why others are wrong about what they think

to explain why I'd be right even if others disagree.
6) If I _don't_ see either of those, it's much stronger evidence that I might just be wrong.

Where does this come up?

Well, often with projects.
7) There's one right now (not released) I'm really excited about.

Many others less so.

I might be wrong -- it's definitely not an easy case to think about!

But I also think there are some things other are undervaluing.
8) The team is really smart.

The team delivers, quickly, and well.

Also, the team is not trying to promote it at all. I think it's easy to mistake having a lazy deck for having a lazy project.
9) But, also, I might be wrong: there are some reasons others are uncertain that I don't have a great grasp of.

We'll see!


There have been other cases, too. FTX, and Serum, in their early days: it's always easier to have an inside view than an outside one.
10) Also, though, there are times which are different: times when I _really_ don't see the appeal of something.

But enough people I trust do that it seems like a strong sign.

And I don't have a reason to distrust their reasoning.
11) One of those was the Open Philanthropy Project.

From the outside, I was skeptical.

People I trusted vouched for it, though. I didn't quite know why -- but also didn't have a particular reason to doubt them. And they knew more than me.

Turns out, they were right.
12) Anyway:

a) knowing more is better, etc.

b) but also, it's helpful to understand what others think and why, and see whether you feel comfortable dismissing it or compelled to update on it

c) if you trust someone and don't see a reason to dismiss, you should update some

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More from @SBF_Alameda

30 Oct
1) A strong impression I've gotten from the crypto ecosystem:

Usually, there is no conspiracy; it's just disorganization and messiness and really exactly what it looks like.

Shit happens, often for silly reasons, but ones you could predict if you thought about it.
2) Over the last year, though--

--I have seen a few things that shocked me.

Maybe I've always been a bit naive, or over-trained on certain subcultures at the expense of others.

People buying bot Twitter accounts to shit on others was one. It's not the biggest.
3) Usually you can get a sense early on of how trustworthy something is.

Not always: there are some VCs that seemed very constructive, and turned out to be hilariously destructive.

And sometimes it depends on who you are: people show different selves to different people.
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
1) FTX is listing equities soon!

Details here:…

The biggest questions people have had are:

3) FTX has partnered with CM-Equity AG to provide equities trading.

CM-Equity is a regulated German financial institution. It has licenses permitting it to offer these products to customers.

All FTX customers who trade equities have to become CM-Equity customers as well.
Read 10 tweets
28 Oct
3) Everything on FTX involves FTT.


Well, first, 1/3 of exchange fees --> buy/burn.

But how about things that aren't quite that?

There's a catch-all: 5% of everything does, one way or another.
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
1) Some updates on Serum Swap!
3) The SRM airdrop period has started! 1m SRM this month.

Will happen at 20 random times in the SRM pools.

Will post when it does.
Read 9 tweets

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