1) Some thoughts on conviction
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
3) I think that BTC is more valuable than DOGE (though, honestly, 2020 wouldn't have been the same without a brief glimmer of hope).
That is not very surprising or interesting: pretty much everyone does.
That is not very surprising or interesting: pretty much everyone does.
4) But sometimes I have beliefs others don't.
Why?
In particular, why do I have them even though I know others disagree?
Why?
In particular, why do I have them even though I know others disagree?
5) Usually what I'm looking for is:
a) I understand why others think what they think
b) I either think:
--others don't understand why I think what I think
--I understand why others are wrong about what they think
to explain why I'd be right even if others disagree.
a) I understand why others think what they think
b) I either think:
--others don't understand why I think what I think
--I understand why others are wrong about what they think
to explain why I'd be right even if others disagree.
6) If I _don't_ see either of those, it's much stronger evidence that I might just be wrong.
Where does this come up?
Well, often with projects.
Where does this come up?
Well, often with projects.
7) There's one right now (not released) I'm really excited about.
Many others less so.
I might be wrong -- it's definitely not an easy case to think about!
But I also think there are some things other are undervaluing.
Many others less so.
I might be wrong -- it's definitely not an easy case to think about!
But I also think there are some things other are undervaluing.
8) The team is really smart.
The team delivers, quickly, and well.
Also, the team is not trying to promote it at all. I think it's easy to mistake having a lazy deck for having a lazy project.
The team delivers, quickly, and well.
Also, the team is not trying to promote it at all. I think it's easy to mistake having a lazy deck for having a lazy project.
9) But, also, I might be wrong: there are some reasons others are uncertain that I don't have a great grasp of.
We'll see!
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There have been other cases, too. FTX, and Serum, in their early days: it's always easier to have an inside view than an outside one.
We'll see!
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There have been other cases, too. FTX, and Serum, in their early days: it's always easier to have an inside view than an outside one.
10) Also, though, there are times which are different: times when I _really_ don't see the appeal of something.
But enough people I trust do that it seems like a strong sign.
And I don't have a reason to distrust their reasoning.
But enough people I trust do that it seems like a strong sign.
And I don't have a reason to distrust their reasoning.
11) One of those was the Open Philanthropy Project.
From the outside, I was skeptical.
People I trusted vouched for it, though. I didn't quite know why -- but also didn't have a particular reason to doubt them. And they knew more than me.
Turns out, they were right.
From the outside, I was skeptical.
People I trusted vouched for it, though. I didn't quite know why -- but also didn't have a particular reason to doubt them. And they knew more than me.
Turns out, they were right.
12) Anyway:
a) knowing more is better, etc.
b) but also, it's helpful to understand what others think and why, and see whether you feel comfortable dismissing it or compelled to update on it
c) if you trust someone and don't see a reason to dismiss, you should update some
a) knowing more is better, etc.
b) but also, it's helpful to understand what others think and why, and see whether you feel comfortable dismissing it or compelled to update on it
c) if you trust someone and don't see a reason to dismiss, you should update some
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