Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning! It's Friday, last night the US reported +33.1% QoQ SaaR growth from -31.4%. As we know this number is useless in the fact that Q2 & Q3 were unique in their seasonal sense & can't be extrapolated/annualized to think that Q3 will persist.

So? %YoY GDP rose -2.9%YoY

Taking into account the -9%YoY of Q2 & +0.3% of Q1 then we have an average three quarters growth of -3.9%YoY.

In other words, Q4 will determine whether the US will contract by only a small single digit or as consensus forecast of -4%.

Jobless claims are falling a bit (talking about stock of continuing claims & existing home sales pretty strong on a %YoY). That said, the question is how needy the economy of more stimulus (2nd fiscal package not passed) & whether states will suppress activities & dampen growth.

Of course the big move last night is EUR/USD & that's because of lock-down 2.0 in Europe as EUR can't handle the heat of rising virus count & further suppression, which well, is a huge downer on all levels.

Lagarde flagged for some December easing w/ her "recalibrate instruments

Asia'll recover better than Europe &asset prices are showing that. Looking at spot FX vs USD. Winners??? ASIANS, even IDR or shall I say especially IDR because I think Indonesia will recover from the abyss thanks to its reforms & walking back on mistakes.

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1321627702198116352?s=20

Let me rephrase this: I think not just Asia will recover faster than Europe but also the US. So far data shows that & there's no reason to believe that US Q4 < Europe Q4 w/ their higher virus count + more extreme suppression.