Javed Profile picture
30 Oct, 10 tweets, 2 min read
The government would do itself a favour by explaining to the people that food commodity prices are driven by international prices. They’ve  moved up by as much 25-50% for the different food commodities in the last few months.
Today international wheat price is ranges between rs2100-2300 per maund whereas the support price paid to local wheat prices is 1350 per maund. Why should local farmers sell at 20-30% lower prices than what he can get by selling across the border in Afghanistan.
Even if he does so, the middle man will buy up the stock and smuggle it across. There’s no point moralising about farmers receiving subsidies and that they should sell at a lower rate than what they get elsewhere. Even if they comply other intermediaries won’t.
That’s the unfortunate reality of how market forces work. The best the government can do is provide targeted subsidies to the poorest section of society whenever there’s such a dramatic adverse move in prices.
Also it might be worth asking why should the rural farmers sell at lower than international prices in order to subsidise the appetites of generally richer city dwellers. The common man is not only the middle classes in urban areas.
It might be worth noting that higher wheat prices if delivered to farmers means that their purchasing power increases. Not only can they buy other manufactured stuff, possibly from cities, but also increase their inputs for wheat production and thereby enhance yields/productivity
Finally the government needs to move away a labyrinth of distorting intervention such as fertilizer subsidies, support prices, import restrictions and price controls. Trying to fight market forces not only harm consumers from getting products at the best prices,
but also discourages competition and productivity improvement. If we want a competitive and growing Pakistan, the government has to educate the people that there are no free lunches. We cannot immunise ourselves from international market forces.
The more we try do so the more we will create inefficiencies in the system. The state can do the greatest good for the most by integrating with the rest of the world as best as we can and ensuring all markets in the country work efficiently

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More from @javedhassan

15 Aug
The agreement (MoU) between Government & Independent Power Producer is a great achievement & should lead to reduction in power costs and also circular debt. It remains to be seen by how much since there are further negotiations to take place. Highlight of the MoU are:
- Projects will convert their contracts to Take and Pay basis, when Competitive Trading Arrangement is implemented and becomes fully operational, as per the terms defined in the license of each IPP. This will hopefully address the issue of IPPs that not utilised still being paid
- ROE on IPP for foreign investors (as registered with SBP), will be 12% in $, but for local investors 17% in PKR without dollar indexation. Equity value will be fixed in PKR at a $ conversion rate of Rs145. Rupee depreciation will result in reduced hike hikes impact than earlier
Read 9 tweets
29 Jul
Now that the Covid-19 curve has been flattened, for the moment at least, there’s the comical search for the X-factor by govt’s detractors. Whether it’s juju or exceptionality of Pakistani genes, the one thing they certainly can’t credit is @ImranKhanPTI strategy of smart lockdown
The experts of all matters in the universe state will table thumping certainty that the following had nothing to do with it:
- 50 different interventions.
- 2300 smart lockdowns covering 47mn people, all data driven.
- TTQ of millions who came into contact with positive cases
And of course we’re suddenly genetically very different to Indians where the daily cases are almost 50,000 & growing at a rate of 20% every week. Also if the cases start going up again then we must not look for any X-factor but immediately put the responsibility on the government
Read 4 tweets
24 Jun
"Pakistan’s textiles & apparel exports, at $10.6bn in 2006, grew to only 12.8bn by 2015, a growth rate of 2.1%..Bangladesh’s textiles&apparel exports grew from $9.9bn in 2006 to $28.3bn in 2015, a growth rate of 12.3%"~ @WorldBank 'Modernizing trade in Pakistan: A Policy Roadmap'
"Because of its slow growth in the industry, Pakistan is losing ground to its competitors. In 2006, Pakistan was exporting more textiles and apparel than Bangladesh and Vietnam. By 2015, both Bangladesh and Vietnam had surpassed Pakistan."
"The difference between Pakistan and its competitors is magnified when focusing on the apparel industry specifically. Bangladesh’s apparel exports grew from $8.25bn in 2006 to $26.53bn in 2015, an annual growth rate of nearly 14 %."
Read 13 tweets
13 Jun
The point scoring by opposition and resistance about total debt increasing is relatively easily dismissed by the simple fact that for the first nine months there was a fiscal surplus - the first time in several years. Therefore the increase in debt was not due fiscal imprudence
But rather having to service the debt book, which was a legacy of previous governments. Now this was further exacerbated by interest rates increasing to12.5-13%. That increase was necessitated by inflationary pressures as a result of depreciation. The reason for that is obvious!
It's also worth recognising that the nominal value of debt also increased because of the depreciation to the extent of external borrowings. But fundamentally if the government had been borrowing to fund its expenditures it would reflect in primary deficit
Read 8 tweets
3 Jun
Is a great 'criminal' injustice is being done on the approx 8500 Pakistan Steel Mill being offered a golden handshake? Let's look at the facts. The package is worth Rs23bn or approx 23lacs per employee or 2-3 years of pay on avg. By most reckoning that's generous, pandemic or not
It's an open secret that many if not most of the 8500 PST workers have second jobs and the wages from the steel mill was an additional income. On the other hand PST has accumulated over Rs220bn in debt, and this gargantuan figure is expanding everyday because of interest accrual
The mill has been incurring heavy losses since PPP regime and effectively production stopped during the previous PMLN regime. From 30,000 employees originally, through attrition and retirement, around 8500 are left. However no privatisation is possible with legacy employees there
Read 8 tweets
26 Apr
The singular joy of the elite English speaking intelligentsia in being united in beating up on the hapless TJ is a spectacle to watch. Like hyenas they descend upon their own to extract one more morsel of apology.
And after that yet one more bite, and the laughing pack shall not stop till it cleans the bones. One has never liked the pulpit peroration of piousness by this preacher, or any other, but still feels a certain degree of sympathy on seeing the grovelling wreck
plead for forgiveness to the pack of hounds. Alas they shall not be satisfied till they've completely torn to pieces the carcass of their latest prey. Lest it be forgotten, this very latest target was one their own creation and an integral part of the conglomeration of hypocrisy
Read 5 tweets

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