There are basically three theories of this election. We'll soon know which is most accurate. It's possible all of them are true at once, in which case we're in for a close election and weeks of ballot-counting hell. This is 2020, so that's probably what will happen.
One theory is that Trump will lose an election where he was essentially the only candidate on the ballot, an up-or-down referendum he loses more because of things he's said than anything he's done. Biden's basement strategy will be hailed as genius.
This supposes the polls are basically right, and a great deal of the electorate passed judgment on Trump long ago. They're discarded or forgotten everything before the coronavirus, the dominant event of their lives. They're not swayed much by recent events or breaking news.
There isn't much enthusiasm for Biden, but there doesn't have to be. People are mostly voting against Trump, with varying degrees of energy. Some of them aren't heated partisans - they just shrug and figure they'll give the other guy a chance.
Some are intimidated by Democrat political violence. They're tired, they're scared, they don't want riots in their town. They don't want to be harassed online, attacked by their friends and family, or mocked by pop culture. They don't like Trump enough to swim against that tide.
After all the talk of "shy Trump voters," the big story of the election will be the quiet Biden voters - they don't show up for rallies, they aren't excited for the Dem ticket, but since voting was made incredibly easy, they'll vote for it. Pollsters have correctly detected them.
The second theory is the "shy Trump voter" scenario. There are very good reasons to think a lot of Trump voters aren't showing up in the polls, or that pollsters are undercounting them. Meanwhile, the visible enthusiasm for Trump means his voters will show up on Election Day.
A lot of people who grouse about Trump or even tell pollsters they're voting for Biden will actually vote for Trump again, now that the grousing is out of their system and they've taken a look at the Democrat ticket. His voting strength in key areas has actually grown since 2016.
Voters are absolutely repulsed by Antifa and BLM riots, and they're itching to vote against the political wing of those extremist movements, the Democrat Party. They see Trump as the last line of defense against radicalism. They want him to get the economy going again.
They know they can't say any of that stuff to pollsters - they have good reasons to feel nervous about what might happen to them if they're outed as BLM critics - but that's how they'll vote. They're chomping at the bit to do it.
The enthusiasm against Trump, the outrage over things he says, is amplified by the media and the online bubble. The electorate out there in the real world sees things differently than Twitter hysterics. The enthusiasm FOR Trump is more solid, more likely to bring voters out.
The third possibility is that the polls weren't all that far off in the aggregate, but momentum is shifting toward Trump in the homestretch, driven by late-breaking events and second thoughts about the Dem ticket. A lot of people have already voted, but a lot haven't.
The real difference between the candidates was never all that far outside the margin of error in the battleground states, and momentum is shifting enough for Trump to win, while polls shift to likely voter screens and the numbers tighten.
The polls weren't completely wrong or fictitious before, but the numbers really are changing as Election Day draws nigh, and the final results could look much different from polls a few weeks ago. Trump could win, or lose by much less than predicted.
And of course there could always be a Black Swan event between today and Tuesday. It's 2020. Why the hell not?
All of those theories have strong proponents and all have evidence in their favor. They're all plausible. The behavior of both campaigns in the homestretch suggests THEY find all three theories plausible. I don't think anyone is foolish for subscribing to any of the three. /end
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