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A new RCP8.5 critique published today
Pedersen et al adds to @matthewgburgess et al & @hausfath @Peters_Glen
It is a valuable contribution to growing literature documenting why it's inappropriate to use RCP8.5 as a reference scenario in climate research
nature.com/articles/s4324…
A new RCP8.5 critique published today
Pedersen et al adds to @matthewgburgess et al & @hausfath @Peters_Glen
It is a valuable contribution to growing literature documenting why it's inappropriate to use RCP8.5 as a reference scenario in climate research
nature.com/articles/s4324…
There now appears to be a growing consensus that RCP8.5 (and by extension SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are inappropriate when used as reference scenarios (for definition of what a "reference scenario" means see @jritch &I --> osf.io/preprints/soca…) 
There is a bit of unfortunate historical revisionism in the paper
Compare Pedersen et al (left) with the original description of RCP8.5 in Riahi et al 2011 (right)
The use of RCP8.5 as a reference scenario can be found in thousands and thousands of papers, with more added daily
Compare Pedersen et al (left) with the original description of RCP8.5 in Riahi et al 2011 (right)
The use of RCP8.5 as a reference scenario can be found in thousands and thousands of papers, with more added daily
Of note (not discussed in Petersen et al)
CMIP6 still uses SSP5-8.5 & SSP3-7.0 as baseline scenarios!
Climate research has entered a phase where the center of gravity of research lies increasingly far from the center of gravity of reality
Pedersen et al adds even more evidence
CMIP6 still uses SSP5-8.5 & SSP3-7.0 as baseline scenarios!
Climate research has entered a phase where the center of gravity of research lies increasingly far from the center of gravity of reality
Pedersen et al adds even more evidence
Petersen et al conclude:
"RCP8.5 should be described as a low-possibility, high-impact case, and not as a business-as-usual case"
Correct!
If we take that seriously RCP8.5 (& close kin) should not be used as reference scenarios in research
Climate research has some work to do
"RCP8.5 should be described as a low-possibility, high-impact case, and not as a business-as-usual case"
Correct!
If we take that seriously RCP8.5 (& close kin) should not be used as reference scenarios in research
Climate research has some work to do
Finally, for a more granular and quantitative evaluation of climate scenarios vs reality based on a Kaya decomposition, please see @matthewgburgess @jritch analysis in this paper
osf.io/preprints/soca…
Kudos to Petersen et al for adding to this important literature
/END
osf.io/preprints/soca…
Kudos to Petersen et al for adding to this important literature
/END
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