Just a quick note on that IPSOS MORI poll showing Labour 5 points ahead - and ahead on 'Fit to Govern' for the first time since it started measuring that almost a decade ago.

'Il Sorpasso' is both the title of a 1962 Italian comedy film and a phrase that's used in polling.
In the latter case, it effectively means 'the decisive shift': the moment one party goes past the other and will stay there.

We've not reached Il Sorpasso yet - and we're a fair way off doing so. When will we do so?

When Labour go past the Tories on economic competence.
When does one party go past the other on economic competence? When there's a crash or political disaster involving the government.

Tories have been ahead - often, miles ahead - on economic competence since 2008.

Labour were ahead - often, way ahead - between 1992 and 2008.
The coming economic chaos - which is absolutely inevitable - is one of those watershed moments. Perceptions of economic competence are why oppositions don't win elections; governments lose them.

It's the key measure. I'd expect Labour to lead it by mid to late next year.

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More from @shaunjlawson

1 Nov
Margaret Thatcher? Supported Pinochet and Pol Pot; opposed sanctions on apartheid South Africa.

John Major? Met proscribed terrorist groups.

Tony Blair? Met proscribed terrorist groups, launched illegal war, oversaw torture and rendition, takes money from Saudi headchoppers.
David Cameron? Wrecked Libya and left it to be overwhelmed by terrorists, left migrants to drown in the sea.

Theresa May? Windrush, hostile environment - both as racist as it gets. And like Cameron, did deals with Saudi headchoppers.

Boris Johnson? A criminal and racist.
And Corbyn's 'interference' amounted to trying to SPEED THE PROCESS UP TO GET RID OF ANTISEMITES.

That same 'interference' was, plainly and obviously, commited by Keir Starmer on Thursday. As the brilliant @alexnunns explains:

Read 10 tweets
1 Nov
Whenever I see Jeremy Corbyn interviewed nowadays, I'm always shocked. Shocked by his gaunt, exhausted appearance. He's aged 20 years in no time.

And the reason I'm shocked is: that was done to him. By a witchhunt the likes of which I've never seen done to anyone else anywhere.
There's people out there who won't be satisfied until the poor man's in a box. With gold handles.

Movements which speak of 'solidarity' do not do to decent, kind people.
Do you know what I think brought him down? Shame. On two levels:

1. Being made to feel ashamed for even existing for day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year, by a disgusting daily drumbeat of hysteria and nonsense.
Read 13 tweets
1 Nov
Angela: facts don't care about feelings. Nor should they ever do so.
- "To suggest that internet conspiracy theories about 5G, Bill Gates, microchips and plandemics are utter nonsense...
Whilst that might be true, it's completely unacceptable not to understand the hurt that causes internet conspiracy theorists"
- "To suggest that No Deal Brexit is an utter disaster and must be stopped at all costs...

Whilst that might be true, it's completely unacceptable not to understand the hurt that causes No Deal Brexiteers"
Read 5 tweets
1 Nov
Right then: schools. This is a profoundly emotive question. Nothing alarms most people more than the thought of children being put in harm's way - and my objection here isn't so much that they're staying open, but that Starmer has not properly explained why they need to.
Absolutely nobody anywhere thought - or thinks - that no children would or will contract Covid at school. That's impossible.

By the same token, the 'gotcha' graphs of case numbers from schools also miss the point.
The point being:

1. The number of children who'd have no proper meals at all if they weren't at school (if Marcus Rashford's campaign didn't educate you on that, then well...)

2. The number of children who live in cramped, unsafe, frequently abusive environments
Read 27 tweets
1 Nov
If you ever wanted an insight into how these disgusting people think and act, watch the video below.

Per @ChrisGiles_ of well-known Marxist conspiracy theory organ, the FT (!), there have already 67,500 excess deaths, with horrible numbers more to come.

Swayne denies this.
Worse: Swayne displays zero awareness, none whatsoever, of exponential growth. In that, he's not alone - as his fellow swivel-eyed loonies once again confirm they don't understand basic maths,

They didn't over Brexit. They don't over No Deal Brexit. They don't over Covid either.
Exponential growth and the time it takes for patients to die mean that for the next 2 weeks, minimum:

- Case numbers are GUARANTEED to rise alarmingly
- Death numbers are GUARANTEED to rise alarmingly

It's only after that that we'll see if these measures work.
Read 7 tweets
31 Oct
Question for all those who say Labour are "the same as the Tories" and Blair was "the same as the Tories" - hence Labour's lead now and Blair's three election wins.

You do realise what you're saying is that the British electorate must be quite massively Tory?
And if the British electorate is, based on your argument, quite massively Tory, exactly how do you suppose a left wing platform will ever win?

By the way, it *isn't* quite massively Tory. Like most electorates, it wants a combination of competence and compassion.
But forced to choose between one and the other, it will always favour the party it sees as more competent. Because elections are not charities.
Read 10 tweets

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