Just a quick note on that IPSOS MORI poll showing Labour 5 points ahead - and ahead on 'Fit to Govern' for the first time since it started measuring that almost a decade ago.
'Il Sorpasso' is both the title of a 1962 Italian comedy film and a phrase that's used in polling.
'Il Sorpasso' is both the title of a 1962 Italian comedy film and a phrase that's used in polling.
In the latter case, it effectively means 'the decisive shift': the moment one party goes past the other and will stay there.
We've not reached Il Sorpasso yet - and we're a fair way off doing so. When will we do so?
When Labour go past the Tories on economic competence.
We've not reached Il Sorpasso yet - and we're a fair way off doing so. When will we do so?
When Labour go past the Tories on economic competence.
When does one party go past the other on economic competence? When there's a crash or political disaster involving the government.
Tories have been ahead - often, miles ahead - on economic competence since 2008.
Labour were ahead - often, way ahead - between 1992 and 2008.
Tories have been ahead - often, miles ahead - on economic competence since 2008.
Labour were ahead - often, way ahead - between 1992 and 2008.
The coming economic chaos - which is absolutely inevitable - is one of those watershed moments. Perceptions of economic competence are why oppositions don't win elections; governments lose them.
It's the key measure. I'd expect Labour to lead it by mid to late next year.
It's the key measure. I'd expect Labour to lead it by mid to late next year.
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