A new national lockdown would have devastating effects on the economy, businesses, jobs, isolation, loneliness, mental health.
Even if infections were increasing rapidly, it would not be a proportionate response. But ...
Even if infections were increasing rapidly, it would not be a proportionate response. But ...
... the evidence suggests that infections are not actually increasing rapidly.
Positive tests increasing at about 1% per day & no longer increasing at all in North West & North East.
In Liverpool, positive tests coming down for some time (including in older age groups).
Positive tests increasing at about 1% per day & no longer increasing at all in North West & North East.
In Liverpool, positive tests coming down for some time (including in older age groups).
Daily increase in Zoe App estimate of total infected is slowing & now under 2% for most recent few days.
ONS estimates a little higher at 4% but that's only up 23rd Oct when increase in positive tests & Zoe data were also a bit higher.
Triage data going down quite steadily.
ONS estimates a little higher at 4% but that's only up 23rd Oct when increase in positive tests & Zoe data were also a bit higher.
Triage data going down quite steadily.
This is consistent with Scotland & NI where growth in infection rates also seems to have slowed & (for NI) possibly reversed.
Who knows what will happen to infection rates in the future, but on current data, there is simply no justification for a national lockdown next week.
Who knows what will happen to infection rates in the future, but on current data, there is simply no justification for a national lockdown next week.
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