🦠 21,915 new cases. (When did I start being relieved that 22k new cases were not as bad as it could be).
⚰️⚰️⚰️. 326 (28 day deaths)
🏥 admissions 1444 as of last Wednesday
🛌 IN Hospital 10,718 yesterday without NI that had 354 in hospital on Thursday . So over 11k.
The data on admission, in hospital , ventilation (978) and deaths including the ONS data that stood at 58,925 on 16/10/20.
In fact from the daily 28 day death data that looks to have to increase by 65 due to reporting lag
Since then there have been AT LEAST another 2,659 deaths
⚰️⚰️⚰️. I think, therefore, there are AT LEAST 64,300 COVID certified deaths to date
It is hard to tell what the 22k positives really mean in terms of tests actually carried out as the tests processed data has not been updated since Thursday.
No sign of that notional increased capacity being used.
P1 and P2 capacity still at 468,979 but has also not been updated since Thursday.
Even adding the P4 surveillance tests the total comes to c482 k
So not the 500k announced.
But the numbers theatre is not the issue.
It is the speed of turn around and effective follow up
You can test up the wazoo but if the results are not swift, contacts traced and
ISOLATE! ISOLATE! ISOLATE! that has to be supported and monitored EFFECTIVELY.
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Even in the MOST pro Trump constituency, Great Grimsby, only 32.7 percent of voters would choose Trump over Biden. Even in British towns normally sympathetic to the Republican Party, the majority would still cast their ballot for Biden.
Interestingly for a center-left candidate, older Brits count among Biden’s biggest fans. Eighty-three percent of voters aged 65 or older, and 80 percent aged between 55 and 64 would vote for the Democrat leader.
It also stops the spread of disease, ill health and death and buys time to build up test and trace capacity and get border monitoring up and functioning efficiently
Vietnam used formal isolation vigorously right at the beginning.
Some used army facilities, hotels, (eg China/ NZ) dusted down isolation hospitals.
Monitored by supervised medical students in Kerala.
About 20% of grocery store workers had Covid-19, and most didn't have symptoms, putting employees at serious risk for infection, particularly those who have to interact with customers. A (quite small) Boston USA study found - KVIA kvia.com/health/2020/10…
This, despite most (91%) wearing face masks in work & 77% saying they wore masks out of work. However most said they could not practise social distancing either in work or some, on commuting to work
25% experienced anxiety & depression v 8% who did not have customer interaction
Of its 1.3 million members At least 108 grocery workers have dies and 16,300 infected or exposed to Covid.
The rate of infection was higher than in a study of Dutch healthcare workers.
If anyone sees a link to the study journal would they attach?
“He took Labour to such a calamitous defeat that its parliamentary representation is crushed to its lowest level since 1935, but he sees himself not as the perpetrator of that disaster but its casualty.”
“He presided over an antisemitism scandal unprecedented in the party’s history, but that also cannot be his fault.”
This Spectator article reproduces a SAGE Reasonable Worst Case scenario that appears to be drawn up in July based on assumption about TT&I that have not materialised.
Worth a much closer look at dates when key information came to light.
I would also flag up that I am uncertain to what extent those summer holidays that imported a Spanish strain of the virus significantly was taken into account.
But very rapid Test Trace plus supported and effective isolation was even more important for that information loop.
Very very surprised to hear @ChrisMasonBBC describe the current positives, hospitalisations/ deaths has come as a surprise given both Vallance and Whitty spelt out that the Tiers would not be enough to stop the growth.
Sage IN JULY said R = 1.7 by October.
@JeremyFarrar in JUNE said the virus would be spiking in October without effective intervention.
Even early OCTOBER the Government was told specifically by SAGE that we were on trajectory to exceed RWS (NB REASONABLE worst case scenario. NOT WORST case scenario.)
RWC was with measures.
Worst case is a lot worse & is when Covid is unmitigated