NEW: Told that the this will be a return to furlough scheme for all at rate of 80% of wages, with flexible element to support part time working. So the nearest analogy is the furlough scheme as it was in August. Ie not tied to having to close down, like tier 3 JSS due tomorrow
Understand that the Jobs Support Scheme due tomorrow will now come in when extended furlough ends, currently planned for beginning of December, ie when national lockdown remains.

Obviously extended furlough will apply across the UK to all nations.
Obviously that is interesting re what Welsh first minister said earlier...

Am checking re self emp scheme, generosity of which was doubled last week, though not to august levels.

My rough estimate of cost is extra £2-3billion on what JSS would have cost. Depends on take up.
Official Treasury release:
80% wages for extended furlough and mortgage holiday extended...

Also confirmed that self employed grant remains at 40% profits
Mortgage holiday extended - FCA to make further announcement on Monday:
Business grants based on rateable value for English businesses obliged to close:
Full Treasury release - let us know what else you want clarifying, we’ll get the answers:
To be clear on the August analogy for extension to furlough - that’s because it will be

- available to all employers
- covers 80% of wages
- but does not cover employer NI & pensions contributions of average 5%
- can be used flexibly re part time work
Self employment scheme remains as it was from last Friday when the grant was doubled to 40% of profits over three months November-January. it hasn’t been changed with the new national lockdown announcement to extend employment scheme by a month at 80%.
Very important question and the answer is that new people can be furloughed - the eligibility criteria is that “employees must be on an employer’s PAYE payroll by 23:59 30th October 2020” ie yesterday Friday night.

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More from @faisalislam

29 Oct
IMF Article IV initial health check of the UK economy about to report back. We will hear from Chancellor @rishisunak, and IMF chief @kgeorgieva very shortly...
IMF cuts UK economic forecast from last month for this year and next
2020 - -10.4%
2021 +5.7%
But praises “aggressive policy response - one of the best examples of coordinated action globally” on the economy...
IMF: “Room to loosen monetary policy in the near term”

Backs “additional fiscal push”... “there is a case to spend more” than current plans to lift investment...

UK economy “now faces headwinds from a second Covid-19 wave, Brexit related uncertainty, rising unemployment..”
Read 11 tweets
27 Oct
This didn’t happen.

Latest years’ numbers for UK are goods.

Before that goods and services, I think.... or at least that’s the only way I can make sense of these numbers (see WB databank/IMF numbers)

On this basis UK has slipped down table since 2015, but by one, below Japan
Good case study in confirmation bias - clearly some people wanted to believe that UK dollar exports could have not far off halved in 4 years.

Truth is there are some notable/concerning/interesting glacial trends in trade stats, but things would never move as quickly as this...
Just so everyone has stats - lots of different ways trade is measured, so you do get different numbers, but vitally important to compare like with like. in $ terms UK exports of goods AND services went up from $810bn (2015) to $894bn (2019) UK slipping one to 5th below Japan...
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
Coming up on @BBCNewsnight - I’m presenting, we hear from @MarcusRashford, an MP defending the Government, and also top trade adviser Dan Hannah on the big trade deal with Japan, as well as the architect of Black Lives Matter... BBC2 now!
Here’s full message from @MarcusRashford who we asked to join us on @BBCNewsnight late last night, but he was in bed ahead of match, responding to yesterday’s outpouring of support from councils, communities, and corporations for supplying food for English children in half term Image
Supermarket Asda (recently taken over back in British ownership) this morning joined in, pledging £100k for school holiday access to food Image
Read 9 tweets
22 Oct
Significant new support being announced by Chancellor in Commons...
NEW - Chancellor doubles taxpayer support for wages to employers under Jobs Support Scheme, and cuts eligibility from a third of hours to a fifth - affects whole scheme, aimed at Tier 2, but not formally tied. UK wide.
Significant acknowledgement that large swathes of the economy are back in survival mode given rising infections, and not in restructure mode, which is what underpinned the original Winter Economic Plan...
Read 5 tweets
21 Oct
A deal-making deal has been reached on “Organising principles for further negotiations with the EU” which may or may not lead to an actual deal: gov.uk/government/pub…
“most difficult” issues identifies as “LPF, governance, fisheries, energy and goods/services provisions” in the memo.
“For our part, we remain clear the best & most established means of regulating the relationship between two sovereign and autonomous parties is one based on a free trade agreement..”

Interesting No 10 statement - surely they mean “only” means of regulating is based on an FTA??
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
PM confirms Greater MAnchester moved to Tier 3

Coming in to force midnight Thursday
& PM confirms the £22m support figure after Burnham found out live on TV from media

PM says distribution of virus this time round is very uneven, which is why local lockdowns appropriate...
Read 6 tweets

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