1/6 A final twitter plug for the lecture I delivered to @ActuaryCompany this week on the lessons to learn, as a nation, from covid-19. I asked five questions, deliberately taking a wider, stand-back, view of what has happened so far...actuariescompany.co.uk/chris-hopson-c…
2/6 Q1. Do we need to improve the way we manage infrequent, but very high impact, way of life changing, events such as global pandemics? Many organisations (e.g. NHS trusts) spend a lot of time thinking about how to better manage risk. Do we now need to do this as a nation?
3/6 Q2. Most of big, way of life threatening, risks are global - they transcend nation state boundaries. So do we, as a nation, need to do more to strengthen the currently weak international architecture to manage those risks? We are in a potentially good position to do so.
4/6 Q3. Covid-19 has not just shone a bright light on the inequalities in our nation, once again, it's seriously exacerbating them. So what, as a nation, are we going to do to start addressing those inequalities? Can we generate a new social compact like we did after World War 2?
5/6 Q4. Covid-19 has shown once again that our machinery of state is too centralised. Do we need to devolve more power? It's striking that in many of the areas where we have struggled - PPE, testing, care homes - there have been strong demands for more local solutions.
6/6 Q5. Covid-19 has transformed our public finances given the size of the Government borrowing required to cover the costs. What's the future of those public finances given some argue that we are now entering a period of persistently low inflation and much cheaper borrowing?

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More from @ChrisCEOHopson

1 Nov
1/17 Where are we up to? The NHS trust perspective on the current COVID-19 second surge and the imminent national lockdown set out below in one of my threads. Usual statement at the top - @NHSProviders is the voice of NHS trusts. We are not the Government or @NHSEngland.
2/17 NHS trust leaders have been saying for a very long time that the task they faced this winter already looked very difficult. Clear risk of a “perfect storm”: full blown second covid surge, usual winter pressures as well as recovering important care backlogs from first phase…
3/17 …At a point when NHS capacity has been reduced (hospital trusts saying by between 10-30%) due to need to keep covid and non-covid patients separate. And when staff are tired, with risk of sickness absence rising in any covid second surge. All on top of 80,000 vacancies.
Read 18 tweets
25 Oct
1/14 Front page story from @thesundaytimes on how NHS treated patients in first phase of covid-19. We think it's given an inaccurate and misleading picture of what happened. Initial thread below. Gathering more detail from members to add to a blog later this week.
2/14 Article alleges NHS was routinely excluding elderly patients from hospitals / intensive care during first phase of covid-19. Evidence includes routine usage of triage tool to deny critical care & not admitting care home patients. Trusts tell us this is incorrect.
3/14 Some facts from an NHS trust perspective. 1.The NHS did not run out of critical care capacity at any point during the first phase of covid-19. Critical care capacity remained available to everybody who would benefit from it. The key is the concept of “benefit from it”.
Read 14 tweets
12 Oct
1/14 Important new blog for @timesredbox on why the NHS needs the Government and local authorities to now move quickly and decisively to create tougher local lockdowns wherever required:
thetimes.co.uk/article/hospit…
2/14 Increasing numbers of coronavirus cases have translated into rapidly rising hospital admissions, especially in NE, NW and Yorks. For a few trusts, the number of COVID-19 hospital patients is now at the same level they had reached at the height of the first phase.
3/14 Trust leaders clear about lessons from the first phase of COVID-19. The virus strikes at very different rates in different localities, so appropriate local responses are needed. The only way to control the spread of COVID-19 is by reducing social contact.
Read 15 tweets
11 Oct
1/6 There has been an ongoing debate on the degree to which hospital discharges were responsible for the high mortality rates in care homes in the first phase of covid-19. This paper, considered by SAGE on 25 Sept, provides important new evidence: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2/6 It says that retrospective genomic analysis and serpositive studies found evidence for multiple routes into care homes. Staff, visitors, visiting professionals, hospital discharges, new admissions and persistent infections may have all contributed to introduction of covid-19.
3/6 However, and here is the key para (para 4.3 in the document): Weight of evidence is stronger in some areas than others. Evidence of staff to staff transmission has emerged in the genomic analysis (high confidence)......
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep
1/14 NHS financial allocations for second half of the year released overnight. Thread of initial thoughts below. Probably of most interest to those steeped in, and fans of, the delights of NHS finances. But some potentially big issues depending on how this plays out.....
2/14 NHS frontline been waiting for allocations for some time, so good that they have finally arrived. There is a lot of complexity here. These allocations have been made at system level for the first time and they also include some detailed calculations on individual items.
3/14 Four specific areas of concern that we expect trusts to raise. First, some ambitious assumptions about recovering non-NHS income that will be a significant issue for a number of trusts who are a long way off from seeing their non NHS income return to pre-COVID levels.
Read 14 tweets
15 Sep
1/14 Widespread media pick up this morning of our press comment on trust leaders' concerns that current test shortages are impacting negatively on NHS staff and patients. Press comment can be found here: nhsproviders.org/news-blogs/new…. Thread follows.
3/14 Trusts are concerned that current test shortages mean NHS staff are having to self isolate because they, and their family members, who need a test, can't access one. Worries this will affect vital service delivery, service recovery and winter preparations.
Read 14 tweets

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