Not true. I learned as much here in Florida circa 2018. In '16, most FL polls were off. In '18, they were even more Dem-skewed, leaving them incorrect by a greater margin than two years before. Now, they are generally even further inflated for the Dems. This means that ...
... accuracy matters nothing. People will consume media and university polls (which are sometimes one and the same) because said surveys confirm their biases. Needless to say, the press and academia make $$$ off of this, which is their only concern. I anticipate that the ...
... overwhelming majority of public polls will be off by a huge margin this year, yet they will make no positive changes for 2022. That is because showing accurate stats means showing close races in swing states, which the Dem consumer base for most public polling abhors. Of ...
... course, this base is unlikely to consume media which it finds displeasing, so honest polling means a sharp decline in $$$ for the press and academia. You think these folks care about accuracy enough to lose $$$ over, especially in an ever-more-competitive economy? Please.

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More from @CottoGottfried

31 Oct
I have just been made aware of what I believe are some internal numbers from DJT's camp. Boy, do they tell a story. I shall share them momentarily ...
TEXAS -- Trump 51% Biden 47%
OHIO -- Trump 51% Biden 47%
FLORIDA -- Trump 50% Biden 48%
IOWA -- Trump 50% Biden 49%
MICHIGAN -- Trump 49% Biden 47%
ARIZONA -- Trump 49% Biden 45%
________________________________________

I have been guaranteed that these numbers are ...
... accurate. They were most kindly passed along to me from someone who is a friend of a certain GOP US Senator. I think that the only concerning state here is Iowa, but I expect DJT to overperform his own internals, even if he ultimately falls short of his 2016 margin.
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
The GA-GOP is far too conservative on social issues for the state it now runs. Its explicit, marquee appeals to what remains of the Religious Right will doom it in short order, no question. GA-GOPers must follow the FL-GOP's lead by focusing on economic, public safety, and ...
... education-related issues if they want to keep winning. God, Guns, and abortion worked in 1990s GA, but not the GA of the 2020s. Even as a socially tolerant guy, I preferred the old GA, but the new one is here and it is not going away. One big problem in GA is that ...
... it is not a tax refuge like FL is, so economic conservatism is not as much of a deal-breaker there as folks are used to paying higher taxes. Public safety is an issue, but GA has many more woke suburbanites than FL does, so who knows how effective it really is. Educational ..
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
COTTO'S OFFICIAL PREDICTION
__________________________________

PENNSYLVANIA
__________________________________

LIKELY GOP HOLD
__________________________________

While PA-GOPers are doing terribly with pre-Election Day voting, which is postal ballot-only (even though ...
... said ballot can be requested and returned in-person at an official site), this is uniquely attributable to distrust in the entire vote-by-mail system, a problem forged as a result of policies pushed by Dem Gov Tom Wolf. By all accounts, PA-GOPers are primed for an epic ...
... turnout on Election Day. This is substantiated by the fact that relatively few postal ballots have been returned in PA thus far, and those which are returned lean near-unbelievably Dem. GOPers have gained massively in voter registration and public polling which I deem ...
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
Rainbow Jeremy of PredictIt may well make a load of cash with his bets this year -- by aggressively positioning himself against whatever he encourages folks to do. I think he wants cheap DJT shares in the GA and TX markets, so he is encouraging lemmings to abandon Trump in ...
... droves. With GOPers doing as well as they are in pre-Election Day voting, one would imagine that folks might see through this apparent charade, but, as the old saying goes, a fool and his money are soon parted. Lots of damn fools out there, sad to say.
Another possibility: RJ doubled-down on Biden shares in the TX and GA markets early on, believing that his candidate would ultimately score a landslide, carrying these states accordingly. Now that this is all-but-impossible, RJ might want to pump the price of Biden shares up ...
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
An interesting phenomenon in this election cycle is that swing state public polling is closer than it was in 2016, while national public polls show Biden up by several points. On its face, this situation should not exist, but it does. From my perspective, it can mean that ...
... there is some massive flaw in projecting the electorate, which throws of nearly all public surveys, or -- perhaps -- these polls, while still oversampling left-leaners because right-leaning folks distrust polling, are picking up a startling reality. This would be that ...
... Biden is going to win safe Dem (and high-population) states by blowout margins while being in the margin-of-error within swing states. That suggests Biden may win the popular vote by some heretofore-thought-impossible margin while losing the Electoral College narrowly. We ...
Read 4 tweets

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