Thread by @unseen1_unseen

Final EV+VBM(VBM will be accepted until Nov 3rd postmarked) numbers out of North Carolina.

Dems 1,694,852
GOp 1,438,129
NPA 1,374,232

difference btw (D-R) is 5.7 pts.
Black vote at 19.4% down 2.8% from 2016 EV as %
White vote at 65.7% down 5.0% from 2016 EV as %

% of Dem vote is 37.4% down from 41.7%(-4.3 pts)
% of GOP vote is 31.7% down from 31.9%(-0.2pts)
% of NPA vote is 30.3% UP from 26.1% (+4.2pts) 🤔🤔

It kind of looks like those (4.2%) dems that voted in 2016 switched to NPA this time around. But not enough info to confirm.

4,531,619 total votes so far that is 96% of 2016 TOTAL votes (4,741,564) So, NC should experience record total turnout come Election day.

total registered voters in NC 7,342,553 2016 turnout was 68.98% of the same % turnout out total of 5,064,893 will be cast.

So, at least 500k more votes outstanding for ED. It will probably be higher. So, where will those votes most likely come from? Most of the dem strongholds are around that 68-70% turnout figure already while the GOP counties are around the 60-50%.

Meaning more of the votes will come from the GOP counties on avg.

In 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 NPA voted on avg about +15pts for GOP in 2008 it was +21pts and 2016 it was +16.

NC dems tend to vote for the GOP at the national level more so than other dems and democrat at the state level. However, if we ASSUME that each party will have a 10% crossover and use the NPA vote avg +15R you get...

Dems 1,694,852 - 10% + 42%(NPA)
GOp 1,438,129 -10% + 57%(NPA)
with NPA=1,374,232
remember this is an ASSUMPTION
Dems at 2,102,544
GOP at 2,067,629
For a dem lead of +34,915

The Dems went into 2016 up ~+310,000k with ~3.1 million EV+ mail and lost by 170,000 or the GOP outvoted the dems on ED by 480,000 out of ~1.6m votes or about 65%-35%(R vs D)

So what does this all mean? Well, understanding all the assumptions and assuming that 500k votes left

The GOP will have about 325,000 of that vote outstanding and the dems about 175,000 or a +150k adv for the GOP on election day. +150k-35K= a Trump win of +115K. or about a 2.5% win in NC.

As stated....There are a lot of assumptions. True, they are based on past results but

they are still assumptions. So take it with a grain of salt but atm NC looks good for Trump. For instance, if that 4.2% of Dem reduction of the turnout in EV really did switch parties to NPA, most likely will be supporting Trump which would probably give the GOP more than +15NPA

Some ??/concerns I have is the Hispanic vote( usually about 5% of total vote (EV only at 2.2%), That 5.0% drop in white vote. (10% of the vote refused to answer the question on race/ethnic) If that 10% is made up of 5% white, 3% Black and 3% Hispanic figures

then ED turnout shouldn't be much different. If not we could see some surprised on ED. Or they might just sit home this time. Who knows.