Thread by @greaterbayo

The Gatekeeper Strategy & Other Ideas - (5)- With All Thy Getting, Get Lagos

Let’s do a little bit of history.

In 2003, the party at the centre, PDP, launched a powerful political onslaught to ‘capture’ the South West States of Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Osun and Lagos States.

It was a blitzkrieg that swept off all the Alliance for Democracy-led South West States and left only Lagos standing. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the Governor of Lagos State then.

Using Lagos as pivot, Tinubu fought, expanded his influence in the Region and clawed his way back until a point all the States in the South West were back to a party in which he was a founder- the Action Congress. He was able to do this because of the immense resources of Lagos

From just one (1) Governor in the South West in 2003, the successor party had five (5) Governors by 2011. From having zero member in 2003 at the Senate, the Action Congress had 19 Senators by 2011. The rest is history, as we say.

This is the same strategy I advocate. Use Lagos as pivot.

Lagos is the most important State in Nigeria. That’s a fact. Lagos is the most buoyant economy in Nigeria. That’s a fact. Lagos is Africa’s 5th largest economy. That’s a fact. Lagos is important to the equation of Nigeria. That’s a fact.

Lagos is the commercial nerve centre of Nigeria. That’s a fact. Lagos is the epicentre of culture, entertainment and innovation in Nigeria. That’s a fact.

Consequently, if Lagos sneezes, Nigeria can catch cold. I suggest all resources be put together to wrestle for Lagos. Without a proper structure, it’s ill-advised to spread yourself thin all over the country as you try to influence the political calculation in 2023.

Taking Lagos is not far-fetched.

I suggested this option to a former Presidential candidate in the 2019 elections. I urged him to run for the Governor of Lagos rather than the President of Nigeria. I believed he had enough resources to go all over Lagos more times than Nigeria.

In the 2019 Gubernatorial elections in Lagos, APC had 739,445 votes while PDP had 206,141 votes. Total valid votes were 958,032. The #endsars protesters alone across the state should be able to match this number.

The focus should be on getting Lagos and using Lagos to negotiate for the rest of the country. An action in Lagos will reverberate across the South West and subsequently across the entire nation even as we have seen in the #endsars protests.

This is the only time in my opinion where it is safe to use a platform different from APC or PDP.

If we are able to ‘capture’ Lagos and showcase how the State can be turned around with the provision of some infrastructure some have now seen as rocket science, it’s a matter of time before the revolution gains traction and spreads like wildfire.

Just imagine unlocking the security votes and deploying same to build tech hubs around the 20 officially recognized Local Government areas in Lagos State! Imagine the number of small businesses that will be created and how many people they’ll employ!

Imagine an intra city rail that runs on schedule all over Lagos! Imagine having at least 2 world class hospitals in Lagos and stopping medical tourism substantially! Imagine completion of the 4th Mainland Bridge!

Imagine if water transport can be an alternative to solving the traffic problems of Lagos! Imagine having free WiFi at all Lagos State-owned tertiary institutions! Imagine tourism becoming a real money spinner! Imagine allowing the Local Governments to function as they should!

Imagine the State running a very transparent government! If the change begins in Lagos, it will catch up with the rest of the country.

The search should begin for a good candidate- I suggest a lady because this will be a first. There has been no female Governor in the history of our democracy. Well, that’s not technically correct.

Dame Virginia Etiaba became the Governor of Anambra for just 3 months following the impeachment of Peter Obi. She reverted to her actual role of Deputy Governor after Peter Obi was reinstated. But then, no female Governor has been elected through the ballot box in Nigeria.

Lagos has always been at the forefront of innovation. A female-led blitzkrieg will be nouveau and leverage on the rising awareness about gender equality.

Let candidates be sponsored to contest for all the seats in the House of Assemblies too. To underscore how easy it will be to over-run the House of Assembly seats, consider the following statistics for the 2019 elections:

The Lagos Mainland 1 candidate polled only 17,239 votes to win. Lagos Mainland II candidate polled 8,896 votes to win. Epe 1 polled 19,028 while Epe II polled 16,227 votes to win.

Desmond Elliot polled 15,357 votes to win his Surulere I constituency. Can’t we get a young fella who can defeat Desmond in 2023? Only a few candidates polled more than 20,000 votes in 2019. Can you see it’s possible to beat them if we turn out for the elections?

Let me recap. To win Nigeria, win Lagos first. Use Lagos as pivot to the rest of Nigeria. It’s easier to mobilize resources to fight for the soul of Lagos than to do so for the whole of Nigeria. Fight for all the Lagos State House of Assembly seats also.

I suggest a female-led candidature. Over-run Lagos with fully mobilized youth. Lagos is at its weakest right now with The Godfather struggling to catch his breath. He is at his most vulnerable. Seize the moment. This is the best time to make a deliberate run for Lagos.

Run with that energy before it goes down. When you win, show the entire country what you can do with Lagos. The rest of the country will follow suit.

Bayo Adeyinka

@threadreaderapp unroll