This was a wide range of conversation touching on many different topics. Let's start.
2/ First, a pitch for SPAC
3/ Loved this mental model of BHAG: Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal.
4/ "...as an entrepreneur, you have to over-index to courage. You have to think about the world that you wish to exist, not the one that does exist. As investor, I'm constantly looking at distribution of probabilities, that those outcomes will in fact be achieved."
5/ Pretty emphatic explanation why $SNOW trades at the multiple it does.
6/ Add the magic of Frank Slootman, and you probably don't want to scoff at that $SNOW valuation anymore.
7/ TAM, team, and a bit of timing are what you need in venture investing.
8/ We are perhaps underestimating how much Fed has been instrumental in driving up the valuation for these tech companies.
But instead of focusing on these potential risks, a better idea to remain invested in great companies.
"you trade against yourself almost all the time"
9/ Another good thought exercise which was suggested by @bgurley to Barton:
"figure out what you do if you were to spend zero money on advertising to launch the product"
10/ "SEO was a dirty three letter word"
"Look if I build the greatest product, Google ought to find me"
11/ Amazing to see how Altimeter thinks about their research process and talent. It's not rocket science, but kinda incredible how very few firms actually get it.
$GOOG has been a laggard among the Big Tech for quite some time. But not yesterday!
Among the Big Tech, the stock had the best reaction (+6.5%) to earnings in after-hours.
2/ $GOOG will break out Cloud as a separate segment from Q4, and they will also report ’18, ’19, and ’20 annual number along with profitability next quarter.
Usually a good sign when company wants to provide more disclosure; generally an indicator of driving a better narrative.
3/ In the last quarter,
Total Revenue +14%
Search +6%; YouTube ads +32%; Network ad revenue +9%
GCP +45%
Other revenues +35% driven by YouTube non-ad revenues and Play
2.5 Billion people use one of the $FB apps everyday
200 Million businesses use free FB tools
10 Million advertisers
Every time I read these data, the scale still astounds me.
2/
DAU/MAU both +12% YoY
Revenue +22% YoY
APAC and Europe +30% and 25% respectively
North America +20%
RoW +12%
# of impressions +35%, avg price/ad declined 9%
2/ Assuming mid-point of their GMS guidance for Q4, its GMS this year will be ~3% higher than my 2021 GMS estimates. This year’s FCF will be close to my 2023 estimates.
LOL.
Here’s snapshot of this quarter+ YTD numbers.
3/ Lots of interesting data points of buyers.
75% of current quarter’s GMS was from pre-covid buyer cohorts.
Non-mask GMS is +93%, but bit of a downer is people whose first buy was a mask are primarily buying only masks.