1/ Notes from @Rich_Barton and @altcap episode at @InvestLikeBest

This was a wide range of conversation touching on many different topics. Let's start.
2/ First, a pitch for SPAC
3/ Loved this mental model of BHAG: Big, Hairy, Audacious Goal.
4/ "...as an entrepreneur, you have to over-index to courage. You have to think about the world that you wish to exist, not the one that does exist. As investor, I'm constantly looking at distribution of probabilities, that those outcomes will in fact be achieved."
5/ Pretty emphatic explanation why $SNOW trades at the multiple it does.
6/ Add the magic of Frank Slootman, and you probably don't want to scoff at that $SNOW valuation anymore.

If you want to know more about Slootman, go here:
7/ TAM, team, and a bit of timing are what you need in venture investing.
8/ We are perhaps underestimating how much Fed has been instrumental in driving up the valuation for these tech companies.

But instead of focusing on these potential risks, a better idea to remain invested in great companies.

"you trade against yourself almost all the time"
9/ Another good thought exercise which was suggested by @bgurley to Barton:

"figure out what you do if you were to spend zero money on advertising to launch the product"
10/ "SEO was a dirty three letter word"

"Look if I build the greatest product, Google ought to find me"
11/ Amazing to see how Altimeter thinks about their research process and talent. It's not rocket science, but kinda incredible how very few firms actually get it.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

30 Oct
1/ Thread: $GOOG 3Q'20 Earnings Update

$GOOG has been a laggard among the Big Tech for quite some time. But not yesterday!

Among the Big Tech, the stock had the best reaction (+6.5%) to earnings in after-hours.
2/ $GOOG will break out Cloud as a separate segment from Q4, and they will also report ’18, ’19, and ’20 annual number along with profitability next quarter.

Usually a good sign when company wants to provide more disclosure; generally an indicator of driving a better narrative.
3/ In the last quarter,

Total Revenue +14%

Search +6%; YouTube ads +32%; Network ad revenue +9%

GCP +45%

Other revenues +35% driven by YouTube non-ad revenues and Play

Operating Margin ~24% Image
Read 9 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Thread: $FB 3Q'20 update

2.5 Billion people use one of the $FB apps everyday
200 Million businesses use free FB tools
10 Million advertisers

Every time I read these data, the scale still astounds me.
2/

DAU/MAU both +12% YoY
Revenue +22% YoY
APAC and Europe +30% and 25% respectively
North America +20%
RoW +12%
# of impressions +35%, avg price/ad declined 9%
3/ Operating Margin ~37%. FCF $5.9 Bn (FCF Margin ~28%)

Outlook: NA market likely to experience decline in DAU/MAU

Q4 YoY revenue growth likely to be higher than Q3 YoY growth

Some headwinds remain.

No slowdown in sight for $FB’s capex.
Read 13 tweets
30 Oct
1/ Thread: $AMZN 3Q'20 Update

Another quarter of mind-boggling numbers, but since it’s AMZN, that’s expected.

Let’s dive in.
2/ Few things stand out.

Most people understandably rave about AWS, especially given its high margin. But I was always amazed by AMZN’s 3P numbers.

Although we cannot “see” it, it’s highly profitable too (not as much as AWS though).
3/ International segment was again profitable for two consecutive quarters.

Strong volume in Europe and Japan.

AMZN is still in pretty early days in international markets. Launched AMZN Sweden yesterday. Also, launched Prime in Turkey.
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
1/ Thread: $ETSY 3Q’2020 update

A month ago, I published a deep dive on $ETSY.

At that time, I hoped ETSY will make a complete mockery of my reverse DCF, and guess what, they are doing exactly that!

mbi-deepdives.com/etsy-a-handmad…
2/ Assuming mid-point of their GMS guidance for Q4, its GMS this year will be ~3% higher than my 2021 GMS estimates. This year’s FCF will be close to my 2023 estimates.

LOL.

Here’s snapshot of this quarter+ YTD numbers.
3/ Lots of interesting data points of buyers.

75% of current quarter’s GMS was from pre-covid buyer cohorts.

Non-mask GMS is +93%, but bit of a downer is people whose first buy was a mask are primarily buying only masks.

Mask is ~11% of total GMS and decelerating fast.
Read 12 tweets
23 Oct
1/ Thread: The Superpowers in Investing

Investing has been dubbed as the last liberal art.

Unless your name is Jim Simons, raw intelligence or brain power is perhaps not a sure-fire way to be successful investors.
2/ The more I think about it, the more convinced I am on just three superpowers in investing.

I. A bias for optimism
II. A better grip on time
III. The ability to imagine turbulent times

Let me elaborate.
3/ I. “Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money”.

Pessimism not only appears more rational, but it can also sound seductive to many.

Compared to pessimists' elaborate and complex theories, optimists often come up with very naïve sounding thesis.
Read 11 tweets
20 Oct
1/5 Thread: $AMZN vs The World

Last year, I started tracking America's top 15 brick-and-mortar retailers' sales vs $AMZN retail sales.

I just updated the chart. It's an astounding chart.

Please see below how I calculated this.
2/5 This is how incremental market share was calculated:

$AMZN conso sales-AWS Yr 1- Yr 0 divided by top 15 brick-and-mortar retailers' sales Yr1-Yr 0

The columns show $AMZN conso sales-AWS divided by top 15 brick-and-mortar retailers' sales

*AWS rev was available from 2012
3/5 These brick-and-mortar retailers generated ~$1.2 Trillion sales in 2019. The following companies were taken for the calculation:

$HD
$LOW
$WMT
$COST
$TJX
$DG
$ROST
$DLTR
$LB
$JWN
$BBY
$KSS
$GPS
$M
$TGT
Read 6 tweets

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