1/ Thread: $AMZN 3Q'20 Update

Another quarter of mind-boggling numbers, but since it’s AMZN, that’s expected.

Let’s dive in.
2/ Few things stand out.

Most people understandably rave about AWS, especially given its high margin. But I was always amazed by AMZN’s 3P numbers.

Although we cannot “see” it, it’s highly profitable too (not as much as AWS though).
3/ International segment was again profitable for two consecutive quarters.

Strong volume in Europe and Japan.

AMZN is still in pretty early days in international markets. Launched AMZN Sweden yesterday. Also, launched Prime in Turkey.
4/ International Prime members streaming Prime Video +80% YoY.

Time spent on Prime Video by them doubled.

Prime renewal rates improved. Engagement improved. Prime members are buying more frequently from more categories.
5/ Investors concerns related to AWS margins amidst competition from $MSFT and $GOOG continue be assuaged by another +30% operating margin quarter.
6/ The other segment grew by +49%. ~80% of “other” segment is advertising.

Needless to say, it’s likely to be extremely profitable too.

From trade promotion opportunity in the marketplace to Twitch and OTT, that ad inventory continues to look mighty impressive.
7/ $AMZN created 400k jobs this year!!

Fulfillment and logistics network square footage to grow by 50% this year.

AMZN saved $1 Bn so far from lack of travel. A lot of the Covid related expenses are more than offset by consistently high demand in typically off-peak quarters.
8/ Operating Cash Flow +56% YoY.

FCF (the most restrictive definition) was +71% YoY

So yeah, another great quarter and life as usual for $AMZN.
End/ All my twitter threads are here: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

$FB (tonight) and $GOOG (tomorrow morning) earnings update to be followed.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

30 Oct
1/ Thread: $FB 3Q'20 update

2.5 Billion people use one of the $FB apps everyday
200 Million businesses use free FB tools
10 Million advertisers

Every time I read these data, the scale still astounds me.
2/

DAU/MAU both +12% YoY
Revenue +22% YoY
APAC and Europe +30% and 25% respectively
North America +20%
RoW +12%
# of impressions +35%, avg price/ad declined 9%
3/ Operating Margin ~37%. FCF $5.9 Bn (FCF Margin ~28%)

Outlook: NA market likely to experience decline in DAU/MAU

Q4 YoY revenue growth likely to be higher than Q3 YoY growth

Some headwinds remain.

No slowdown in sight for $FB’s capex.
Read 13 tweets
29 Oct
1/ Thread: $ETSY 3Q’2020 update

A month ago, I published a deep dive on $ETSY.

At that time, I hoped ETSY will make a complete mockery of my reverse DCF, and guess what, they are doing exactly that!

mbi-deepdives.com/etsy-a-handmad…
2/ Assuming mid-point of their GMS guidance for Q4, its GMS this year will be ~3% higher than my 2021 GMS estimates. This year’s FCF will be close to my 2023 estimates.

LOL.

Here’s snapshot of this quarter+ YTD numbers.
3/ Lots of interesting data points of buyers.

75% of current quarter’s GMS was from pre-covid buyer cohorts.

Non-mask GMS is +93%, but bit of a downer is people whose first buy was a mask are primarily buying only masks.

Mask is ~11% of total GMS and decelerating fast.
Read 12 tweets
23 Oct
1/ Thread: The Superpowers in Investing

Investing has been dubbed as the last liberal art.

Unless your name is Jim Simons, raw intelligence or brain power is perhaps not a sure-fire way to be successful investors.
2/ The more I think about it, the more convinced I am on just three superpowers in investing.

I. A bias for optimism
II. A better grip on time
III. The ability to imagine turbulent times

Let me elaborate.
3/ I. “Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money”.

Pessimism not only appears more rational, but it can also sound seductive to many.

Compared to pessimists' elaborate and complex theories, optimists often come up with very naïve sounding thesis.
Read 11 tweets
20 Oct
1/5 Thread: $AMZN vs The World

Last year, I started tracking America's top 15 brick-and-mortar retailers' sales vs $AMZN retail sales.

I just updated the chart. It's an astounding chart.

Please see below how I calculated this.
2/5 This is how incremental market share was calculated:

$AMZN conso sales-AWS Yr 1- Yr 0 divided by top 15 brick-and-mortar retailers' sales Yr1-Yr 0

The columns show $AMZN conso sales-AWS divided by top 15 brick-and-mortar retailers' sales

*AWS rev was available from 2012
3/5 These brick-and-mortar retailers generated ~$1.2 Trillion sales in 2019. The following companies were taken for the calculation:

$HD
$LOW
$WMT
$COST
$TJX
$DG
$ROST
$DLTR
$LB
$JWN
$BBY
$KSS
$GPS
$M
$TGT
Read 6 tweets
19 Oct
1/ Thoughts on @jnovogratz episode at @InvestLikeBest

As I'm originally from Bangladesh, this one really touched me, and would share my own experiences of growing up in Bangladesh while simultaneously sharing notes from the episode.
2/ First, let's start with this beautiful "Blue Sweater" story.

Yes, today we are much more connected. One thing I have seen Americans consistently underestimate is how closely America is followed by the majority of the world.
3/ I have Bangladeshi friends who never came to the US (and may never will) and yet their knowledge/interest on 2020 election would be among top 10 percentile in the US.

Of course, Hollywood has incredible influence as well. One thing that surprises me how America failed...
Read 13 tweets
12 Oct
1/ Notes from @Jesse_Livermore episode at @InvestLikeBest

If you are yet to listen to this episode, here's a friendly suggestion: Do not put the audio speed more than 1x. The guest in this episode already talks at 2x speed.

Perhaps that's by design to fit in all his insights.
2/ A few weeks ago, @Jesse_Livermore wrote an intriguing paper on "upside-down markets".

Here he explains what exactly an upside-down market is.
3/ Fiscal response materially differs from monetary response. Fiscal response increases people's unencumbered spending power.
Read 11 tweets

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