Thread by @julianrouth

New: In final Monmouth poll of PA, Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead over Donald Trump, a margin that has narrowed since the pollster's survey a month ago thanks to the Republican's gains in swing counties and among senior voters. post-gazette.com/news/politics-…

The Monmouth poll, which had Biden up by 12 points among registered voters in early October, now shows the race at 50% for the Democrat and 45% for Trump.

The biggest swing occurred in surveys of PA’s swing counties. In the 10 counties where margins were closest four years ago, Trump leads 49% to 45%. Biden led those counties — concentrated in eastern PA and including Erie in the northwest — 53% to 42% a month ago.

While Biden continues to hold onto young voters and people of color by large margins, Trump closed the gap among voters aged 65 and older. Biden — who had led senior voters by between 10 and 13 points in previous Monmouth polls — is up 50% to 49% now.

Voters in Pennsylvania continue to trust Biden more to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, by a 47% to 34% margin. Trump is more trusted — in this poll — on maintaining law and order (44% to 43%) and protecting jobs in the state (45% to 42%).

Biden's lead has also tightened in the pollster's different turnout models. In a low turnout scenario, Biden was up 8 points a month ago; now, he's up 5. In a high turnout scenario, Biden leads 51% to 44%; he was up 11 points a month ago.

Pollster notes that at this point, low turnout scenario would “basically mean a large number of mail ballots have been rejected.”

However, we simply don’t know at this point what will happen on that front. Re-upping from last night:

Citing Pa., Trump says campaign will be ‘going in with our lawyers’ when polls close post-gazette.com/news/politics-…

Note from director of polling institute.

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1323228410584436736

Let me repeat: Though it is *likely* that the high turnout model would apply given the Dems' edge in the more than 3 million applications to vote by mail here, the pollster noted that a low turnout would mean, at this point, “a large number of mail ballots have been rejected.”

*There is no evidence to suggest this will happen in the aftermath of Tuesday’s election*, but Trump — citing the extensions to received-by deadlines — said his campaign will be “going in with our lawyers” when polls close.

That's the nature of the game, folks.