Thread by @gauravsabnis

One thing about the results I'm curious about from a tactical and demographic analyses POV is how Trump's frontal attack on mail ballots and also the US Postal Service in general will play out in the numbers. On a personal and moral level, I'm disgusted by it. But curious...

Postal voting has been a part of the US system for a while and is growing. It's generally a very well run, efficient system with lots of checks and balances to make sure it's cast and counted correctly. In 2016, about 20% voted by mail. Neither party had an edge, studies show.

It's used mainly by military personnel posted away from their homes (biggish number), civilians who are out of state or overseas, and the disabled or senior citizens (big number). And of course, a handful of states like blue Oregon and red Utah that vote exclusively by mail.

Mail ballots became a bigger deal cos of covid. In May-June, a majority of my friends (and the wife and I) were thinking about voting by mail because, you know, virus. Then came Trump's absolutely bizarre and cruel frontal attack on USPS, with a complicit Post Master General.

Now, pretty much anyone I know under the age of 60 and physically capable has either voted early in person or then physically carried their postal ballot to a drop box. The only ones to voted by mail were seniors, legit worried about covid, or those out of state or country.

In fact the surge in early voting is very likely attributable to Trump's attack on the postal system. Democrats have been very active with awareness and GOTV efforts. Motivated extra by Trump saying explicitly that he's going to try his hardest to hit system.

Also PSA: Even if you sent in a mail ballot, you can still show up & vote, like Trump was urging his fans to do. All these systems have built-in measures to make sure only the first of those counted, is counted. But 2020 will still have most mail votes ever. Mail voting isn't new

And it will be heavily dominated by seniors unable to or unwilling to leave their homes. Like Florida. Lots of mobility challenged retirees there in their 70s and 80s and 90s vote by mail. Or people in their 50s/60s who are mobile but rightly wary of the virus.

Here's where Trump's USPS gutting gets bizarre. In 2016, he carried the 50-64 segment by 6% and 65+ by 9%. Even bigger margins among white voters in those age groups. (Source - Pew)
So assuming that mail-in ballots are mostly 50+ and Trump has a big edge among 50+, bizarre, no?

Going beyond mailin ballots, another reason it's bizarre is that rural counties rely on the USPS for their day to day lives and economic activity disproportionately more than urban or suburban counties. I can walk out right now and spot a dozen FedEx/UPS trucks in Manhattan.

But in remote, sparsely populated counties, it's the USPS that is usually the cheapest (of course), quickest, and sometimes only practical option to send or receive packages. Despite what libertarian talking points say on Reddit, the USPS is a very competent and able agency.

So by kneecapping the USPS, Trump is directly hitting their wallets and also just daily convenience, given how extra important e-commerce has become since covid hit. And he carried most rural counties in 2016. He still will. But surely this USPS-gutting should have an impact.

Republican lawsuits against ballots will be very clinically targeted of course. Like the Republicans' Texas case in federal court is only targeting curbside ballots in Harris County, which went from 10% for Bush in 04 to 2% Obama in 08 to 12% for Clinton in 16.

But still, this frontal assault on the USPS by Trump seems potentially like cutting off his nose to spite his face. Especially given how Democrats responded to it. The results will tell all. Whenever we get them all. And of course, the courts will play a big role.