Over on my instagram account I’m asking how many of you actually have a means of systematically listening to your heart rate and responding to its feedback everyday? But i have to warn you that there is a serious risk that i maybe tripping on day 7 of my juice regime...
But let’s return to the heart of the matter cause I listen to it...The darn thing beats 2 billion times per lifetime, sometimes more, sometimes less... and we do what? We ignore it - more concerned about another organ - wink wink.
Ignorance is bliss? Hmmm...Everyone that runs past me has a strap protecting their knee cause it’s not natural - not to listen to your heart - it’s not natural. And i have to walk when I’m sure i could keep on running further. Humbleness sucks...but cycles are the boss.
It’s the same with investing. We do all kinds of crazy shit and to what effect? Listen to your heart and buy things in an uptrend and sell things that are falling - and be greedy for lots of observation points and feedback.
Always amazes me how people don’t really want to hear stuff like that.
Me? I would love to see the 20 y chart of something that is approaching a more fruitful decade. I prefer that to the endless urging that gravity spare us yet more asset price inflation. Me? I got some candidates in mind; some real feel-good situations that demand curiosity.
But I wouldn’t cloak them in tribal titles such as deep value.
Rather I’m more into deep cleansing and gut wrenching. forgiveness.
The wonder of witnessing a deep, serious, bear market laid bare on your screen. Where something that once excited the spirits of the many becomes rapidly and then very slowly irrelevant.
To bare witness to the apathy of others.Almost as powerful as the final scene of Blade Runner and the rogue replicant, Roy Batty, and yes this is getting really batty...as the end of his 4 year lifespan approaches he reflects...
I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark...All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.
I was 13 when i watched that and it stayed with me all my life. Like tears in rain - baring witness to the apathy of others...
Except relevancy has a cycle and rarely is everything lost in time. Significance can stubbornly remain obscured behind the debris of perceived failure. Visible only to those who care to enquire.
For as solitary as apathy is, solitude is rarely wasted. More often than not the worm turns. It’s just that onlookers rarely bother to notice.
And that’s why i listen to my heart. And that’s why i cried in my brother’s arms. And that’s why it’s sometimes better than laughing. Because sometimes those that languish in the graveyard of other peoples’ dreams sometimes rise and prosper once again...
A nocturnal night-dream? The seething brains of lovers and madmen? An inventory of timelessness?
A time to stop juicing?
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@RobinBHarding@RobinBrooksIIF Hi the 2 Robins forgive me my manners but may i ask if either of you are familiar with any good articles examining the BoJ's brief dalliance with negative policy rates and why they abruptly ditched the policy? It would be a fascinating read.
Personally i think they took way too much flack for the policy and now they seem committed to its opposite. Their ZLB policy looks like one of those long slow suicide notes presumably motivated to restore monetary grace and honour to themselves; tragic and selfish...
Japan has succeeded in lowering expected inflation and duration rates to zero. Well done i hear you say. But what if the notoriously shy and elusive natural rate of interest is below zero? What then? And with tightening fiscal policy -less JGB issuance and a desire to raise taxes
@LukeGromen What do i have to do to have a peaceful Sunday? You know that your incessant China and oil import thesis drives me crazy. I maintain that you are better than this but for whatever reason you are drawn back to it endlessly. The $ reserve status is a blessing to China
I'll never get this China oil thing of yours. Oil is not that high; neither price nor imports as % of china GDP. China can buy oil however they want to but the pricing of oil is global and will be set exactly the same way. We ain't changing the world because of oil.
I don't get your US entitlements issue. They're clearly too high; old folks have accrued an unsustainably high share of future GDP through dubious politics. But a weak $ and neg real rates make that unsustainable claim easier to meet today The rest is for the politics of tomorrow
I had a great chat with @RobinWigg. It’s unfortunate that he chose the term “blamed”, that i blamed central banks. I don’t believe that’s true. I made my peace with CBs many years ago at the end of 2012. I think they’ve made fewer mistakes than in the past
and I congratulate them on not fighting the pull of market-determined natural rates to zero or even beyond...And there-in perhaps lies the malaise of the macro sector: fewer mistakes begets less profit making opportunities...
The rarity of Kindleberger moments means that legitimate error strewn sectors - Turkey, anyone? - are immediately priced to oblivion. The vol on the lira is >7 points wide! Your currency chart doesn't show the penury of the shorting cost or the lack of willing counterparties.
Owning property in SBH is my volatility at the end of the world trade! You get to own exquisite properties funded at fixed long & WRONG rates, with no currency risk and zero carry after everything.
Capital gains are commensurate with elsewhere except hold for longer and they drop to zero.
And most deals are done for cash and so we've never seen a deleveraging bear market...prices tend to plateau for awhile.
Especially because everyone accepts the glut of global savings hypothesis. So if we presume this nuttie notion of permanence is actually nuttie then savings must fall.
But economic theory dictates that there are only 3 mechanisms that make this happen: higher unemployment - no thanks - higher gov borrowing - hmmm - and / or higher household savings - again hmmm, seems better than unemployment
So if US can record almost 50 years of CA deficits how fanciful is it that gov debt just continues to rise? especially when you have access to zero cost infinity loans called QE?
Question: wishing for benevolent creditors who will accept negative real rate for decades is like wishing for true love; aka why i wrankle with some of @LukeGromen narrative