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3 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Study of 12 million adults in England.

"living with children 0-11 years was not associated with increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 related hospital or ICU admission but WAS associated with REDUCED risk of COVID-19 death"

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
"We found no evidence for a reduction in risk following school closure."
Living with children LOWERED risk of COVID death for adults both under age 65 and over 65. ImageImage
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Phil Kerpen Profile picture
5 Nov
DC reports 3 deaths with COVID. Now 4 in November.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 81 / 3,411 2.37%
7-Day: 608 / 30,638 1.98%
14-Day: 1145 / 61,067 1.87%
28-Day: 1917 / 123,686 1.55%
Charts and data:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
Note some of the modest increase in % positive may come from the way DC is using antigen tests.

Contrary to Dr. Birx's recommendation to PCR confirm positive antigen tests, DC is doing the opposite and counting antigen positives as cases while PCR confirming the negatives. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
19 Oct
DC reports zero deaths with COVID. Still 13 in October.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 25 / 2,235 1.12%
7-Day: 373 / 30,221 1.23%
14-Day: 848 / 67,472 1.26%
28-Day: 1417 / 111,296 1.27%
Finally under Bowser's 35/day standard!

But on moderating volume.

Data and charts:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Cumulative DC Totals from July 1 to October 18

Deaths with COVID: 87

Positives: 6,005
Tests: 367,977
1.63%

Three and a half months under 2%. Still Phase 2.
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
16 Oct
Week 41 flu numbers

Clinical labs
26 positives of 9,727 tests (0.27%)

Public health labs
0 positives of 4,249 tests (0.00%)

Combined
26 postitives of 13,976 (0.19%)

cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Flu Cumulative Weeks 40 to 41

Clinical labs
60 positives of 19,768 tests (0.30%)

Public health labs
1 positive of 11,200 tests (0.01%)

Combined
61 positives of 30,968 (0.20%)
2019 Comp Flu Weeks 40 to 41

Clinical labs
2020: 60 positives of 19,768 tests (0.30%)
2019: 1,075 / 34,990 (3.07%)

Public health labs
2020: 1 positive of 11,200 tests (0.01%)
2019: 176 / 1,029 (17.1%)

Combined
2020: 61 positives of 30,968 (0.20%)
2019: 1,251 / 36,019 (3.46%)
Read 9 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
13 Oct
"Close the doors; close the windows." The man is ineducable.
Governor Andrew Cuomo: "This is not a highly nuanced, sophisticated response. This is a fear-driven response. You know, this is not a policy being written by a scalpel. This is a policy being cut by a hatchet. It's just a very blunt.
"I didn't propose this, you know. It was proposed by the mayor in the city. I'm trying to sharpen it and make it better, but it's out of fear. People see the numbers going up. Close everything! Close everything! It's not the best way to do it but it is a fear-driven response.
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
13 Oct
DC reports zero deaths with COVID. Still 9 in October.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 46 / 4,262 1.08%
7-Day: 416 / 33,052 1.26%
14-Day: 768 / 56,685 1.35%
28-Day: 1381 / 106,801 1.29%
Ward 3, where my kids' school is located. Total tests not available.

Population: 84,869

Positives
1-Day: 0
7-Day: 21
14-Day: 37

Deaths
Mar-Apr: 14
May: 16
Jun: 3
Jul: 0
Aug: 0
Sep: 1
Oct: 0
NOTE: "DC Health does not have information about cycle thresholds."

Per NYT cycle thresholds of 37 to 40 yield up to 90% noninfectious, months-old viral debris.

One test used by the DC Public Health Lab runs *45* doubling cycles.

Test more, find more. But what are you finding?
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
11 Oct
DC reports 1 deaths with COVID. 9 in October.

7-day average tests break 5000 for the first time at 5192.

Positives / Tests %
1-Day: 66 / 7,068 0.93%
7-Day: 465 / 36,342 1.28%
14-Day: 734 / 55,008 1.33%
28-Day: 1392 / 105,526 1.32%
Charts and data:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 6 tweets

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