On the eve of the election, this paper from me and others lays out the impact of the federal government on the pandemic, it's not good link.springer.com/article/10.100… 1/n
1st the failure to prevent introductions. Lots of dramatic posturing against China, while the virus found ample opportunity to enter the country from Europe. Pandemics are, by definition, global 2/n
2nd Have you noticed the appalling numbers of healthcare workers who have lost their lives? We have known all along one of the most important ways to help them is Personal Protective Equipment or PPE khn.org/news/lost-on-t… 3/n
So look at how complaints to @OSHA_DOL about unsafe work environments (bars) are correlated with deaths a little after two weeks later! (the line) In the NE in the spring that's especially strong among industries connected to healthcare (most dark purply bit of the bars) 4/n
And for the country as a whole... note please that there are also State OSHAs involved, that in many cases do a far better job then the federal level - but they're not on the ballot 5/n
And then the appalling inequities. There is so much to unpack here. These numbers show that the burden has been borne by those who are already left shamefully aside, and for whom public health is too damn often an afterthought 6/n
finally this photo of living graffiti was taken by my excellent non twitterati coauthor Nancy Krieger.
Seems relevant. Doesn't it?
Vote
7/end
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The severity of covid varies greatly by age, with risks of death in young people often said to be equivalent to those of flu. This is one of the most pernicious pieces of misinformation I have noticed in the pandemic. This is why 1/n
first of all, let me be clear that this is *only* based on deaths. There is plenty accumulating evidence that ~10% of people can have long term illness (long covid) lasting for months and this includes young people. I know some. You may too 2/n
It is correct that younger people are much less likely to die from covid, but younger people are much less likely to die period - from covid *or* flu. So how many younger people typically die of seasonal flu? Fortunately @CDCFlu has asked that question for us 3/n
The changing political geography of the pandemic in the US. In the spring the densely populated deep blue NE was hit hard, but since July things have flipped and cases and deaths are now highest in rural GOP voting areas. Featuring work from us washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10…
It also quotes @AliHMokdad who says, rightly "it didn’t show up immediately in rural communities,” he said. “And then people in these communities felt, ‘That’s not us, that’s the big cities.’ They let down their guard.” But there's something else here
the introductions to large urban areas are predictable, simply because of the numbers of opportunities, while for smaller rural communities it is more random. But given time the virus will get there eventually
With many other experts in infectious disease and allied fields, I'm proud to sign and have done my bit to help write this in @TheLancet which explains the *actual* expert consensus on the #COVID19 pandemic and the need for action marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lanc…
The letter states as clearly as can be that approaches to the pandemic that seek immunity through natural infection are dangerous, and explains why
This is a collaborative effort with many brilliant people, but @dgurdasani1 deserves special mention, for the tireless way she combined viewpoints and expertise from many different fields to build this statement of *consensus*.
This is a very interesting deep dive into the controversial route Sweden took through the spring and summer of the pandemic (HT @AliciaJWeston). A few things stand out... sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/i…
First Sweden did not ‘do nothing’, there were sensible steps taken including restrictions on large gatherings (implemented early on), and there was considerable evidence of altered movement patterns. High schools and universities remote learning too. However...
There was still a very large, very rapid surge in healthcare demand and lot of deaths in a short period during the spring. Mortality was concentrated in nursing homes - which *are* part of the continuum of healthcare. Figures are not easy to interpret because of issues with...
The first statement is sort of true although a bit misleading - many pathogens are disproportionately dangerous to those who are vulnerable for one reason or other, but Covid is especially so.
But the 2nd statement leaves me at a loss. I can’t think of an example 1/n
We don’t use naturally acquired immunity in this way. Btw have you imagined the stink there would rightly be if a vaccine had the risks associated with Covid-19? 2/n
There are some diseases where the risks of infection vary given the age you first encounter them. Mumps is an eg. Post pubertal males can be rendered sterile. Chickenpox is another where it is milder in younger age cohorts 3/n
This illustrates a few of the points made by people who, whatever their motivations, should not be really taken seriously when it comes to talking pandemic - not least because these arguments come from the part of epidemiology that deals with *non*infectious disease 1/n
(Firstly anyone who says Covid mania has already revealed that they’ve got what you might call a pre-existing condition when it comes to the science. I don’t think that more than 200,000 and counting deaths is worth joking about. Call me crazy) 2/n
‘May not’ vs ‘may’. Yes it is right to be cautious about these statements. But not to the level of relativism implied here. The ‘may’ formulation is not equivalent to ‘may not’. It implies that we think about its consequences 3/n