L Profile picture
3 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Rupal Bhansali says it so well.

Rules of investing are not just different, they are asymmetric.

In investing, it is not enough to be correct. If there is a consensus there is no payoff.

So not only must you be right, you must also prove everyone else wrong.

So you score no points if you are correct, and the consensus is with you. But you also score negative points if you are incorrect.

Those penalty points are the albatross of investment capital. Which means, you can lose a lot of money if you get things wrong.

#MICIN Image
Momentum rallies tend to function like ponzi schemes. 🤣🤣

In a ponzi scheme, when money flows in, it tends to become a self fulfilling prophecy. When it flows out, it becomes a house of cards.

FAANG is up 1500% over the past decade.

* FB & Google are going to face regulatory headwinds ahead.
* Apple & Netflix have significant competitive risks.
* Netflix is a loss-making company built on a house of cards- highly indebted & -ve free cash flow

Rupal Bhansali at #MICIN
Bubbles come to an end without notice.
Gold is a crowded trade.
Healthcare looks good.

This entire thread are the views of Rupal Bhansali

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with L

L Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @larissafernand

3 Nov
Extinction is the norm, Survival is the exception.

Nature is not cruel, only pitilessly indifferent
- Richard Dawkins.

Capitalism is not cruel, only pitilessly indifferent
- Sanjay Bakshi

@Sanjay__Bakshi at #MICIN draws parallels between evolutionary biology & investing.
Black Swan Events will occur & catch us by surprise. When they do, Capitalism shall be pitilessly indifferent.

-ve: Death. Destruction. Extinction.

+ve: New players. Adaptation. Cost cutting. If we resist this or fight it, we risk going extinct.

@Sanjay__Bakshi at #MICIN
*It's impossible to avoid the impact of a -ve black swan. No matter how diverse your portfolio, it will get hit.

*Like nature, the market is a Pari Mutuel game (behavior of other players changes the odds).

*To thrive in the long run, you have to suffer in the sh term.

Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!