Okay, it's time to put my cards on the table, so here is my prediction. 270towin.com/maps/2grl3
Conditional on Trump winning the electoral college, which as you can see above is not what I expect to happen, here is the map I regard as most likely. 270towin.com/maps/oAn3r
As a bonus, here is another scenario I don't regard as very likely (Trump loses PA but wins AZ and MN), but which I think could happen and surprise everyone especially if the Selzer poll in IA was in fact picking up something real in the Midwest. 270towin.com/maps/Vnd1P
Overall, I do expect polls to underestimate Trump, because I just don't buy that Biden can be ~8 points ahead in such a polarized country, but if you look at state polls they would really have to be completely wrong for him to pull this off.
It's possible, but if this happens, it will be something very different and much more shocking than what happened last time, so the comparison with 2016 — which is very popular among Republicans — is clearly flawed. You have to assume that polling error is much larger this time.
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