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3 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I asked four GOP campaign managers who lost to Trump in 2016 to predict the 2020 popular vote. They predicted Biden would win by:

-8 million
-6 to 7 million
-6 million
-9 million

But two of them picked *Trump* to win the EC.

Down that path lies madness.
politico.com/news/magazine/…
John Kasich's campaign manager, Beth Hansen, picks Dems to win the House and Senate.... Biden to win the popular vote by 8 million.... and Biden to win the Electoral College w/ 278 EVs. Total turnout: 148 million.
Jeb Bush's campaign manager, Danny Diaz, picks Dems to win the House and Rs to win the Senate.... Biden to win the popular vote by 6 million.... and Trump to win the Electoral College w/ 278 EVs. Total turnout: 150 million +
Marco Rubio's campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, picks Dems to win the House and the Senate.... Biden to win the popular vote by 9 million (!).... and Biden to win the Electoral College w/ 374 EVs (!). Total turnout: 151 million
Ted Cruz's campaign manager, Jeff Roe, picks Dems to win the House and Rs to win the Senate.... Biden to win the popular vote by 6-7 million.... and Trump to win the Electoral College w/ 278 EVs. Total turnout: 157 million (!)

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More from @TimAlberta

Tim Alberta Profile picture
2 Nov
I got something special for you.

VALENCIA COUNTY, NM is the ultimate bellwether of presidential politics—voted w/ the winner of every election the last 68 years.

Here’s what this place, and its people, are trying to tell us...

✉️Letter to Washington✉️

politico.com/news/magazine/…
Funny thing about the streak? Nobody here knew about it.

"I’ve never felt that people around here are real fluid in their political beliefs," said Dale Thule. "Maybe the swings back & forth are on account of people taking turns getting so frustrated that they don’t vote at all.”
I asked Kenneth Tiger (right), a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat, how he thought Valencia County would vote this fall.

“Whatever happens, it’s not going to be good. I’ve already lost 30 friends in the past four years. It’s going to get worse."
Read 12 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
8 Oct
The answer to court-packing Q is “Look, that isn’t our decision to make. Congress would need to pass legislation to expand the Supreme Court, and there’s no use speculating on that possibility when we’ll face immediate challenges on day one of a Biden adminstration.”

Not hard.
Of course, I’d want to hammer that answer with a thousand follow-ups, because this isn’t just another silly hypothetical exercise.

But that’s not the point. The point is, Biden & Harris have not provided a ready-made answer on this obvious question, which is really bewildering.
Btw... I’m pressing congressional D on this not-so-hypothetical question.

Here’s what Elissa Slotkin told me:

“That’s pretty reactionary... I would rather we just handle this like adults and keep the court the same size but allow the next president to decide who the nominee is”
Read 4 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
8 Oct
Frank Luntz focus group, asks for one word to describe Pence: "robot... presidential... even-keeled...presidential...bland...regressive....professional...pathetic....calm....typical politician....comfortable....no emotion"
Frank Luntz focus group, asks for one word to describe Harris: "evasive...nervous...shifting blame...caring....snarky....too rehearsed....nervous....evasive....abrasive....unsteady....rigid....unpresidential"
to those asking - 9 of these 13 undecided voters are men. that said, not a clear gender divide here in their views of the candidates.
Read 9 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
6 Oct
It’s time to inch out on a limb.

In the coming weeks, I’ll unpack my notebook, highlighting the trends and intelligence I feel most certain will shape the outcome November 3.

Here’s the first batch.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
1. Trump fatigue is peaking at the wrong time for Trump.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
2. The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
Read 6 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
30 Sep
in Frank Luntz's focus group, Ruthie from PA (upper right corner) said she was undecided coming into tonight..... but now likes Biden b/c Trump was behaving like a "crackhead" and made the debate impossible to watch
Luke from Wisconsin (red shirt) says Trump is obnoxious and unpresidential... but that behavior doesn't affect his bottom line, doesn't impact his day-to-day life (like the violence he's seen in Kenosha)
Jeremy from AZ says he's still undecided because he doesn't like Trump but Democrats haven't given him a good reason to vote *for Biden*
Read 9 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
30 Sep
Presidential debates are not a game. The implications are bigger than any sporting event.

Buuuuuuuuut ... with the advent of betting on politics, there's a fascinating intersection of my two pet obsessions. That in mind, here are some locks tonight...
Take the over.
Definitely take "Fake News"
Read 5 tweets

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