This tracks with other evidence to suggest Trump will win NC by around 5pts. What other evidence you ask?
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1323621143694123008?s=19
The total change in registration in NC over the last four years. The EV+Mail numbers gives a low ball estimate of a 2.5% win with Joe having a perfect number. Each number that isn't perfect means Trump's win % goes up. The decline in the early black vote. The decline in Dem vote
Share by 4.3pts....with a corresponding increase of the NPA vote % of around 4.2ptd suggesting a move of at least 2pts toward Trump. The fact that 96% of the 2016 vote is already in and most of the GOP counties still have voted in the the tank while Dem strongholds are at 70%
Gallup poll showing the country is at +2D instead of the +4D it was in 2016 countrywide. The Early numbers from FL suggesting Trump will win by around 3pts and NC votes to the right of FL in about the same %. But it's election day so all the crystal ball stuff is meaningless as
In about 9 hours we will find out what reality is. So go vote and make your own reality and not a prediction.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
