Exit polls!
-Yes, they're happening this year
-A lot of the work was done prior to Election Day
-Final results not foolproof, but provide useful data about the electorate
-Don't try to use early results to guess who's going to win
-Especially this year

One of the big advantages of finalized exit polls is that they're weighted to the actual results of the election, rather than our best guess of what the electorate will look like.

As we all know by now, this year it'll while to get the actual results of the election.
Additional reading, via @jennagiesta: cnn.com/2020/11/02/pol…
And some more details on AP VoteCast, which launched during the last midterms and is being used by Fox, WSJ, NPR, Univision and PBS NewsHour this year

Main thing with exit polls: Interviewers are still out today (masked and armed with disposable pencils!) but the pandemic has exacerbated a movement toward catching early voters through phone surveys + some work at early voting centers.

VoteCast is also all phone/mail/web.

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More from @aedwardslevy

1 Nov
These three things are true, and yet all of them are most likely entirely unrelated to the concept of "shy Trump voters."
Polling errors are indeed real! They could favor either Trump or Biden! If they do favor Trump, it's still probably not because of social desirability bias!
I do not understand why this is the one concept to which the Discourse has latched onto like a remora.
Read 6 tweets
1 Nov
More of this kind of contextualizing of results, please.

Pollsters should stand by their results, and journalists should help readers understand the broader context of the data they're providing. These are good examples of simultaneously doing both.
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct
New HuffPost/YouGov poll: Here's what voters say their top issues are for this year's election -- and how it compares to what they think the two campaigns care about.

huffpost.com/entry/voters-t… ImageImage
I get into this more in the story, but: there are a lot of reasons to use caution when analyzing top-issue polls. One thing I DO think they can be useful for is gauging which campaign messages are resonating or not.

We've been asking this question biennially since 2014. A few things that stand out to me this year:
-Immigration is WAY down in salience from 2018
-Trump's messaging on crime is just not resonating, even with his supporters

Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
You know all those articles that start off with things like "Obviously, we're all freaking out about the election right now"?

New FDU poll: "Only 32 percent of Americans who are following the election very closely report high levels of stress"

(I really dislike chatty first-person-plural ledes that make casual, sweeping assumptions about one's readership)
Also interesting: "It might seem like paying close attention to this year’s Presidential election would lead to higher levels of stress, but paying close attention to the race is actually correlated with lower levels of perceived stress."
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
what Image
The Gallup analysis linked here is talking about the way that framing can affect issue questions.

This does...not generally apply to ballot tests?

I don't even know where metaphors come into it.
?????????? Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Oct
New HuffPost/YouGov poll: Most voters think social media platforms have a responsibility to prevent users from spreading conspiracy theories/false information. Big partisan gap, but also an age divide.

huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac… ImageImage
GOP voters mostly believe social media platforms are biased against conservative views, while a modest plurality of Dem voters see them as neutral.

huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac… Image
Voters are pretty divided on whether it's a good or bad thing for elected officials to be on social media, but they're more likely to think Trump's tweets hurt than help him. huffpost.com/entry/poll-fac… ImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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