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Ryan Matsumoto

3 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read

FIRST ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS come from Greene County Indiana:

Trump 68.4%
Biden 29.7%

(52% of estimated votes reporting)

In the 2016 election, Trump won this county 74% - 21%.

#ElectionNight #ElectionNight2020

MORE INDIANA RESULTS:

Sullivan County, Indiana (~40% of estimated votes reporting)

Trump 65%
Biden 33%

In the 2016 election, Trump won this county 72% - 25%.

A swing of 15% to the left from 2016.

#ElectionNight #ElectionNightResults

More Indiana Results:

Steuben County, Indiana (~51% reporting)

Trump 61%
Biden 37%

In 2016, Trump won this county 70% - 26%.

A swing of 10% to the left from 2016.

#ElectionNight #ElectionNightResults #Election2020

*swing of 20%

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Ryan Matsumoto

@ryanmatsumoto1

3 Nov

Created a basic live spreadsheet model to estimate the final margin in Florida.

Basically it compares a county's margin with its margin in the 2018 Governor race once Early/Mail/50%+ precincts report.

No guarantees, but we'll see how it goes!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

If counties with almost all their vote in shifted ~3 points left vs. 2018, we might expect future counties to do so too.

We can then apply margin estimates to turnout estimates and add everything up.

My turnout baseline is 76% statewide (10.976M), but that might be adjusted.

I chose the 2018 gubernatorial race rather than the 2016 presidential race as the baseline comparison for Florida counties because it does seem from the polling that Trump may outperform his 2016 margins with Latinos. The midterm elections showed a similar demographic pattern.

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