Remember how data science convinced many key decision makers that campaigning against “the world-historical corruption of our opponent” would be an unsound political strategy?
Here’s my global pre-bedtime take: I still think Biden is favored to win. But this is a really shitty outcome against the most corrupt president in U.S. history, who presided over hundreds of thousands of unnecessary American deaths.
I’m less mad about any polling error than I am about a) the baleful effect pseudoscientific models have on voter behavior and b) two years of Dem decision-making on the basis of data pseudoscience that, among other things, convinced them “running against corruption” is bad.
Opposition parties shouldn’t need data science to make that call. People hate corruption because it’s awful; when we see it in our lives it makes us violently angry. Which Trump corruption scandal can you think of that Dems ran on more aggressively than the fake Hunter scandal?

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More from @brianbeutler

23 Oct
Trump is still gaming out ways that GOP judges might steal the election for him, and he and they seem to be circling around this strategy. crooked.com/articles/trump…
In their just-filed brief, PA-Dems endorse segregating late-arriving ballots, which would moot any GOP hope (detailed in the above piece) of claiming the whole Pennsylvania election is tainted. Note, a solution like this is unavailable in Florida. Image
Closing the loop on this, it prevents a potential catastrophe in PA. Now we await on the other potential catastrophes.
Read 7 tweets
20 Oct
The “prioritize popular things” school doesn’t account for issues like court expansion and impeachment where public opinion follows elites. If Dems unify, it’ll become a 50-50 issue. If they let polls determine their position it’ll remain underwater and democracy will collapse.
This phenomenon is a bigger general problem in the context of McConnell’s strategy of reflexively denying the opposition votes for bills. His insight: unify the opposition and the governing party, obsessed with finding bipartisan cover, will splinter.
If Dems approach governing that way again, they won’t just leave themselves and the country at the mercy of illegitimate Republican courts. They’ll find that even the popular aspects of their agenda will lose popularity, and they’ll accomplish much less than they otherwise would.
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
All respect to Dan, but the bar for “right” here shouldn’t be set at “Trump attempts procedural coup and fails,” or “Dem landslide buries Trump’s election stealing ambitions.” Both of these standards are actually testaments to how far we’ve slipped.
The first normalizes shocking abuse on the grounds that it’s unlikely to work out the way Trump wants, the second creates the unacceptable expectation that the liberal party needs to win landslides to claim power uncontested. This is a broken discourse.
Trump could lose by 10, rendering him unable to steal the election in court, but then turn around and fan (more) street violence and sabotage the transition, and under the incompetence standard this would just stand as evidence that the hysterical libs worried too much. Really!?
Read 6 tweets
13 Oct
My position has been: 1) no rescue that doesn’t include election protection, 2) no stimulus that isn’t tied to conditions and thus of equal benefit no matter who’s POTUS, 3) no paltry GOP stimulus devised to expire before Jan. A thread on why 1.8T (structured right) is worth it.
The window for 1 has closed completely, reflecting big strategic errors by Dem leadership. The window for 2 is also closed at least for now, reflecting similar errors and failure of imagination.
But it’s so late now that 3 is also no longer a concern. 1.8T in late October–again, structured right–really will span administrations and come too late to radically alter the trajectory of the election.
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
We have not advanced nearly far enough toward not pretending to believe Republicans when they pretend to care about stuff they manifestly don’t have any principled view about.
After four years of bullshit, I personally wonder where to find all the stories about Biden voters in Biden country who don’t care about his contingent views on expanding the judiciary.
The story is that Republicans invented a slander to deflect legitimate concerns about the nominee they’ve chosen to cement illegitimate control over the court. But to tell it you have to be willing not to pretend to believe Republicans when they pretend to be mad about stuff.
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
Hoarse from screaming: if he waits until the court shows its true colors it‘ll be too late.

There are elections every two years, justices serve for life. If they know Biden will only change his view when they do what they intend, they’ll wait til he loses concurrent majorities.
Judges aren’t senators, courts are not legislatures. If right-wing judges, with lifetime appointments, believe Biden will refrain from court packing until the court acts abusively, the court will wait until he lacks concurrent majorities to act abusively.
Read 4 tweets

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